South Carolina @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

2-4 · Power #47

final

Final

Missouri

6-1 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -7.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 23–31 MIZ

✓ MIZ (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -7.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIZ -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 58% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -7.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 7.5-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 34–12; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 6.9; 60.3 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	28–13	W	U57
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-8	38–6	W	U58
Very close	UCLA vs STAN 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	47–48	L	O59.5
Very close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	17–26	L	U58
Very close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Very close	UTAH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.25	44–24	W	O60.5
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	ORE vs ORST 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	38–29	W	O61.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-2
MIZ WWWLW	4-3	57%	1-3	2-2

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC OUOOO	4-2	67%	2-4
MIZ OOO–O	5-1	83%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SClast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%
MIZlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC−1.6 →+3.0▲ 4.6#45

MIZ+0.4 →+6.8▲ 6.4#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#46

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#29

#110

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#59

0.0 #71

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #59

66 plays #81

Pace

Even

67 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Even matchup

	SC off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #68	24.9 #65	Even
Yards / play	6.18 #48	5.37 #57	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #27	+0.12 #84	SC
Success rate	45% #40	38% #29	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #37	31.3 #110	MIZ
Yards / play	6.69 #23	6.17 #114	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.26 #24	+0.20 #111	MIZ
Success rate	47% #31	44% #104	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SC scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	8.7 #22	9.0 #57	17.7 #38	5.0 #98	6.3 #75	11.3 #97
MIZ allowed	6.4 #97	3.9 #11	10.3 #41	5.3 #64	9.3 #116	14.6 #96

MIZ scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.4 #38	11.3 #21	18.7 #27	4.3 #109	10.9 #7	15.1 #42
SC allowed	6.8 #101	9.7 #105	16.5 #107	8.0 #104	6.8 #75	14.8 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.