Missouri @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

7-1 · Power #12

final

Final

Georgia

8-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -14

✓ MIZ W

Total

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 20–34 UGA

✓ UGA (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -14

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUGA -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Line context

Home favorites of 12–16 since 2023: won 91%, covered 44% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -14

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 14-point home favorite against MIZ, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 30–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 54, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 13.2; 56.6 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	27–21	L	U50
Close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-14	30–31	L	O53
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	ASU vs STAN 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-13.5	28–10	W	U53.5
Close	ORE vs WSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.25	38–24	W	O57.75
Close	CLEM vs MIAMI 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.25	42–17	W	U60.25
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	38–20	W	O49
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-15.5	48–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ WWLWW	5-3	63%	2-0	2-1
UGA LLWLW	2-5-1	29%	1-3-1	2-5-1

Venue/role: MIZ away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ OO–OU	5-2	71%	7-1
UGA OO–OO	4-3	57%	8-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 50–58 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZlast 8	7-1 88%	5-3 63%	5-2 71%
UGAlast 8	8-0 100%	2-5-1 29%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+0.4 →+8.9▲ 8.5#23

UGA+6.4 →+18.6▲ 12.2#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MIZ

Longer bar = better

UGA

#23

Offense

UGA better ▶

#45

Defense

UGA better ▶

#10

+0.3 #44

Turnovers

◀ MIZ better

+0.1 #61

65 plays #84

Pace

UGA faster ▶

71 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #27	14.8 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.79 #16	4.54 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #19	−0.05 #10	Even
Success rate	47% #29	34% #10	Even

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #8	23.3 #54	UGA
Yards / play	7.16 #6	5.21 #42	UGA
PPA / play	+0.34 #5	+0.08 #57	UGA
Success rate	52% #7	37% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	8.3 #25	11.1 #21	19.4 #18	3.8 #116	10.8 #9	14.5 #47
UGA allowed	3.9 #32	3.5 #8	7.4 #9	1.6 #4	5.8 #55	7.4 #11

UGA scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	6.0 #64	15.6 #1	21.6 #8	10.8 #5	8.1 #35	18.9 #10
MIZ allowed	5.6 #80	3.8 #10	9.4 #25	5.4 #62	8.5 #103	13.9 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.