Ole Miss @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F7 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ole Miss

8-1 · Power #16

final

Final

Georgia

9-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -11

✓ UGA W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 24–34 UGA

✓ UGA (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -11

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUGA -11

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Line context

Home favorites of 9–13 since 2023: won 85%, covered 42% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -11

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as an 11-point home favorite against MISS, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 52–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 10.5; 62 points a game (usually 55.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-10	45–38	L	O58
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Close	CIN vs SMU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.75	48–14	W	U65.5
Close	OSU vs MICH 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-9	23–45	L	O56
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	OU vs TCU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	52–31	W	O64.5
Close	TENN vs SC 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	41–20	W	U63
Close	PITT vs MIA 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	34–38	L	O61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WLWWP	6-2-1	75%	2-1	1-1
UGA LWLWL	2-6-1	25%	1-4-1	2-6-1

Venue/role: MISS away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS O–UUO	4-4	50%	8-1
UGA O–OOU	4-4	50%	9-0

Went over in Q4. Of 95 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISSlast 9	8-1 89%	6-2-1 75%	4-4 50%
UGAlast 9	9-0 100%	2-6-1 25%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MISS 15–34 UGA (1 tied) UGA leads · 50 games since 1940 · MISS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+4.5 →+14.9▲ 10.4#15

UGA+6.4 →+18.2▲ 11.8#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MISS

Longer bar = better

UGA

#16

Offense

Even

#53

Defense

UGA better ▶

#14

+0.9 #13

Turnovers

◀ MISS better

+0.3 #38

69 plays #45

Pace

Even

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #13	15.4 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.91 #11	4.68 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #10	−0.01 #20	Even
Success rate	46% #30	36% #17	Even

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #8	22.9 #50	UGA
Yards / play	7.03 #8	5.09 #36	UGA
PPA / play	+0.33 #7	+0.08 #54	UGA
Success rate	50% #9	42% #70	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	13.0 #2	6.2 #101	19.2 #18	8.1 #26	11.4 #1	19.6 #6
UGA allowed	4.2 #42	3.4 #7	7.7 #9	1.8 #4	6.0 #57	7.8 #13

UGA scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	5.7 #77	14.7 #3	20.3 #13	11.1 #4	7.9 #39	19.0 #7
MISS allowed	4.2 #42	6.4 #47	10.7 #39	5.8 #67	6.4 #66	12.2 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.