Tennessee @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

7-2 · Power #15

final

Final

Missouri

7-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -2

✓ MIZ W

Total

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 29–27 MIZ

✗ TENN (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -2

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTENN -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Line context

Road favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -2

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 2-point road favorite at MIZ, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIZ won 36–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 59, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 2.7; 55.7 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	16–13	P	U59.5
Very close	ASU @ ORST 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	10–24	L	U59
Very close	ISU @ TEX 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	23–20	W	U58
Very close	LSU @ MSST 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	28–25	W	U55
Very close	PITT @ GT 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	52–21	W	O57.5
Very close	TCU @ TTU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	52–31	W	O60.5
Very close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–14	W	U55
Very close	MICH @ IU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	21–38	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN WWLWW	6-3	67%	1-2	6-2
MIZ WLWWW	6-3	67%	2-3	3-1

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; MIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN OUOOO	5-3-1	63%	7-2
MIZ O–OUU	5-3	63%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 46% of games with totals 55–63 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENNlast 9	7-2 78%	6-3 67%	5-3-1 63%
MIZlast 9	7-2 78%	6-3 67%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+9.7 →+15.0▲ 5.3#14

MIZ+0.4 →+9.8▲ 9.4#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TENN

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#27

Offense

Even

#24

#17

Defense

◀ TENN better

#49

+0.6 #28

Turnovers

◀ TENN better

0.0 #66

70 plays #33

Pace

◀ TENN faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #23	24.0 #54	TENN
Yards / play	6.62 #20	5.29 #48	TENN
PPA / play	+0.21 #35	+0.10 #69	TENN
Success rate	46% #28	37% #24	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #36	18.4 #22	Even
Yards / play	6.67 #18	4.73 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #16	−0.02 #17	Even
Success rate	47% #27	35% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	9.9 #10	10.2 #24	20.1 #14	7.2 #42	7.4 #52	14.7 #46
MIZ allowed	5.3 #68	4.1 #11	9.4 #29	6.3 #83	8.2 #98	14.6 #100

MIZ scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	8.1 #28	10.2 #24	18.3 #22	3.7 #118	10.4 #7	14.1 #49
TENN allowed	3.2 #22	5.9 #34	9.1 #23	6.1 #74	3.2 #7	9.3 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.