Central Michigan @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Tue, Nov 7, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

5-4 · Power #122

final

Final

Western Michigan

3-6 · Power #120

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -3

✓ WMU W

Total

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 27–30 WMU

✓ WMU (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWMU -3

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWMU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (74 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWMU -3

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 3-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 38–28; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 59, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 3.4; 43.3 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USF vs FAU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	14–56	L	O61
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Very close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	APP vs MRSH 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	31–9	W	U57.5
Very close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Very close	USA vs TXST 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	30–20	W	U57.5
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	20–17	P	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LLLLW	3-6	33%	2-3	3-1
WMU WWLWW	6-3	67%	2-1	3-0

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; WMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU O–UUO	5-2	71%	5-4
WMU OOOUO	6-3	67%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 86 earlier overs in games with totals 55–63, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMUlast 9	5-4 56%	3-6 33%	5-2 71%
WMUlast 9	3-6 33%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−7.2 →−11.6▼ 4.4#116

WMU−3.0 →−10.1▼ 7.1#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CMU

Longer bar = better

WMU

#93

Offense

Even

#94

#121

Defense

WMU better ▶

#100

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

WMU better ▶

+0.4 #34

67 plays #74

Pace

WMU faster ▶

75 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #91	32.8 #120	CMU
Yards / play	5.11 #109	6.07 #109	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #78	+0.15 #95	Even
Success rate	40% #94	42% #77	Even

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU offense

	WMU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #78	29.9 #106	WMU
Yards / play	5.09 #110	6.49 #131	WMU
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	+0.26 #131	WMU
Success rate	40% #89	45% #115	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	3.4 #115	9.1 #46	12.6 #82	6.2 #65	4.9 #110	11.1 #95
WMU allowed	6.8 #101	9.2 #97	16.0 #107	8.3 #120	8.4 #100	16.8 #120

WMU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	5.8 #69	8.4 #61	14.2 #67	5.0 #97	7.0 #61	12.0 #85
CMU allowed	7.2 #107	5.6 #22	12.8 #70	8.3 #120	8.8 #107	17.1 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.