Central Michigan @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Wed, Nov 15, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

5-5 · Power #122

final

Final

Ohio

7-3 · Power #63

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -10.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 18–29 OHIO

✓ OHIO (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -10.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOHIO -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 45% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -10.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 10.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 34–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 11.3; 61.2 points a game (usually 55). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU vs FIU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	58–21	W	O52
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-13	20–22	L	U51
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-13	14–38	L	O48.5
Very close	GASO vs TXST 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-12	40–38	L	O49.5
Very close	RICE vs CONN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	31–38	L	O47.5
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	SDSU vs HAW 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	34–10	W	U51
Very close	UAB vs LT 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.75	52–38	W	O49
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-10	24–7	W	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LLLWL	3-7	30%	2-4	3-2
OHIO LLLLW	4-6	40%	1-4	2-5

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU –UUOO	6-2	75%	5-5
OHIO –UUOU	1-7	13%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 144 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-2 75%
OHIO	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	1-7 13%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−7.2 →−12.3▼ 5.1#121

OHIO+0.9 →−1.3▼ 2.2#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CMU

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#86

Offense

Even

#83

#121

Defense

OHIO better ▶

−0.4 #101

Turnovers

OHIO better ▶

+0.1 #57

66 plays #74

Pace

Even

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	CMU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #88	15.1 #5	OHIO
Yards / play	5.25 #96	4.69 #12	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.11 #76	−0.09 #3	OHIO
Success rate	41% #83	35% #12	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #108	30.7 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #104	6.42 #129	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.11 #75	+0.26 #130	OHIO
Success rate	45% #43	46% #118	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	3.1 #121	8.9 #50	12.0 #91	7.7 #35	4.4 #123	12.1 #81
OHIO allowed	1.0 #2	4.3 #11	5.3 #4	3.3 #16	6.5 #66	9.8 #29

OHIO scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.2 #101	6.8 #89	11.0 #101	6.2 #63	4.4 #123	10.6 #103
CMU allowed	7.2 #106	6.4 #45	13.6 #79	7.5 #112	9.6 #120	17.1 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.