Ohio @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F10 mphgusts 22DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ohio

8-3 · Power #63

▲ winner

Final

Akron

2-9 · Power #130

final

Closing spread

OHIO -16

✓ AKR W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 28–13 AKR

✓ OHIO (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -16

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOHIO -16

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -16

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 16-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 25–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.3 against an average line of 15.4; 39.9 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB @ USM 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-17	34–0	W	U43.25
Very close	TULN @ ECU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-17	13–10	L	U44.5
Very close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Very close	BOIS @ UTEP 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-16.25	10–27	L	U44.5
Very close	LIB @ CONN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-13.5	33–36	L	O45
Close	TROY @ ARST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	48–19	W	O44
Close	ILL @ NU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.75	41–3	W	O38
Close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Close	CIN @ TEM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-17	23–3	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO LLLWW	5-6	45%	3-2	3-5
AKR WLWLP	4-6-1	40%	1-3	3-4-1

Venue/role: OHIO away, as favorite; AKR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO UUOUO	2-7	22%	8-3
AKR UOOUO	4-5	44%	2-9

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	2-7 22%
AKR	2-8 20%	3-6-1 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

OHIO 23–10 AKR OHIO leads · 33 games since 1992 · OHIO has won the last 7 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO+0.9 →−1.4▼ 2.3#69

AKR−1.0 →−16.0▼ 15.0#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

OHIO

Longer bar = better

AKR

#78

Offense

◀ OHIO better

#131

Defense

◀ OHIO better

#47

+0.3 #42

Turnovers

◀ OHIO better

−0.8 #131

66 plays #73

Pace

Even

66 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	OHIO off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #99	28.3 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #101	5.20 #37	AKR
PPA / play	+0.12 #70	+0.04 #32	AKR
Success rate	45% #43	38% #24	Even

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	AKR off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #135	15.5 #6	OHIO
Yards / play	4.38 #133	4.80 #15	OHIO
PPA / play	−0.05 #132	−0.09 #3	OHIO
Success rate	37% #122	35% #10	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.7 #92	6.8 #88	11.5 #95	6.9 #52	4.3 #125	11.2 #97
AKR allowed	2.7 #13	10.0 #114	12.7 #66	9.5 #131	3.5 #7	13.0 #79

AKR scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	3.7 #110	4.6 #130	8.4 #126	1.5 #132	4.7 #111	6.3 #130
OHIO allowed	0.9 #1	4.5 #15	5.5 #4	3.6 #19	6.5 #69	10.1 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.