UTSA @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Tulane · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UTSA

8-3 · Power #56

final

Final

Tulane

10-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -3.5

✓ TULN W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 24–28 TULN

✓ TULN (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -3.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTULN -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 46% (98 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -3.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 3.5-point home favorite against UTSA, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 29–16; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 53.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 3; 44.9 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	APP vs UL 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	21–24	L	U51.5
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	16–28	L	U54.5
Very close	BSU vs AFA 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–24	L	U52
Very close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	31–23	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA WLPWW	5-5-1	50%	2-2-1	0-1
TULN LLLLW	4-7	36%	1-5	4-6

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA UOUUO	3-6-1	33%	8-3
TULN UOUUU	1-9	10%	10-1

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 54% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	3-5-1 38%
TULN	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+0.7 →+1.1▲ 0.4#58

TULN+6.3 →+2.7▼ 3.6#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

UTSA

Longer bar = better

TULN

#50

Offense

Even

#57

#44

Defense

Even

#36

+0.1 #62

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #51

74 plays #9

Pace

◀ UTSA faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #30	18.5 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.82 #61	5.19 #35	TULN
PPA / play	+0.17 #50	+0.04 #36	Even
Success rate	43% #58	41% #56	Even

When TULN has the ball

Even matchup

	TULN off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #66	24.3 #59	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #51	5.13 #30	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.13 #65	+0.07 #50	Even
Success rate	44% #44	39% #37	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.2 #41	10.9 #22	18.1 #20	8.4 #24	6.6 #71	15.0 #36
TULN allowed	2.5 #10	5.5 #29	8.0 #10	5.6 #64	4.9 #28	10.5 #37

TULN scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.5 #21	8.4 #57	16.8 #36	6.5 #59	4.5 #120	11.0 #99
UTSA allowed	8.2 #119	7.2 #64	15.4 #98	2.8 #7	6.1 #62	8.9 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.