Tulsa @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

3-8 · Power #118

▲ winner

Final

East Carolina

2-9 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

ECU -3

✓ TLSA W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 21–24 ECU

✗ ECU (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseECU -3

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseECU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 47% (99 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseECU -3

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 3-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TLSA won 29–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 3.9; 45.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	BUFF vs BGSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–24	L	U44.5
Very close	EMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	24–10	W	U43.5
Very close	EMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–27	L	O39.5
Very close	WYO vs USU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & total	-5.25	28–14	W	U44.5
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	27–20	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA LLLWL	4-6-1	40%	3-1-1	3-3-1
ECU LWWWL	5-6	45%	2-3	1-1

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UOOUU	4-6	40%	3-8
ECU UOUUU	3-8	27%	2-9

Went over in Q2. Of 91 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	4-5 44%
ECU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA+3.9 →−11.5▼ 15.4#119

ECU−10.0 →−8.2▲ 1.8#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TLSA

Longer bar = better

ECU

#88

Offense

◀ TLSA better

#136

#116

Defense

ECU better ▶

#29

−0.6 #126

Turnovers

ECU better ▶

−0.1 #79

72 plays #21

Pace

◀ TLSA faster

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	TLSA off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #96	21.8 #40	ECU
Yards / play	5.29 #94	5.14 #31	ECU
PPA / play	+0.10 #80	+0.05 #38	ECU
Success rate	41% #83	34% #6	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #134	34.5 #123	Even
Yards / play	4.06 #136	6.52 #129	Even
PPA / play	−0.13 #137	+0.22 #123	Even
Success rate	32% #136	43% #87	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	3.9 #109	9.1 #49	13.0 #81	2.6 #127	7.3 #55	9.9 #109
ECU allowed	5.3 #65	6.6 #44	11.9 #52	4.0 #28	5.9 #54	9.9 #32

ECU scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	5.2 #85	5.4 #120	10.5 #105	1.5 #132	4.4 #122	5.9 #132
TLSA allowed	11.7 #133	7.5 #68	19.3 #127	10.1 #133	4.5 #19	14.5 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.