North Texas @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

North Texas

3-7 · Power #103

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

3-7 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

UNT -2

✓ UNT W

Total

▼ Under · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 34–33 TLSA

✓ UNT (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNT -2

Total69

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNT -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close69

Line context

Road favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 46%, covered 42% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNT -2

Total69

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 2-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 35–28; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 63 points stayed under 69, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.5 against an average line of 3; 69.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Very close	ARST @ TXST 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	45–47	L	O69
Very close	USF @ UAB 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	35–56	L	O68.5
Very close	KENT @ OHIO 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-5	34–27	W	U68.5
Very close	TULN @ ECU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	29–52	L	O64.5
Very close	LT @ CLT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	21–26	L	U66.5
Close	FAU @ UNT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3	28–45	L	O67.5
Close	CLT @ UNT 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	49–21	W	O66
Close	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5
Close	LT @ UNT 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-1	42–31	W	O65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WWWPL	5-4-1	56%	3-2	1-3
TLSA WLLLW	4-5-1	44%	1-4	3-2-1

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; TLSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT UUOUU	4-4	50%	3-7
TLSA –UOOU	4-5	44%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 41% of games with totals 65–73 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%	4-4 50%
TLSA	3-7 30%	4-5-1 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−15.5 →−8.3▲ 7.2#107

TLSA+3.9 →−10.9▼ 14.8#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UNT

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#39

Offense

◀ UNT better

#93

#132

Defense

TLSA better ▶

#115

−0.3 #98

Turnovers

◀ UNT better

−0.8 #129

73 plays #12

Pace

◀ UNT faster

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #29	34.4 #124	UNT
Yards / play	6.44 #27	6.39 #125	UNT
PPA / play	+0.16 #53	+0.20 #119	UNT
Success rate	44% #45	44% #92	UNT

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: TLSA offense

	TLSA off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #104	37.5 #135	TLSA
Yards / play	5.25 #96	6.47 #129	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.08 #89	+0.25 #129	TLSA
Success rate	41% #81	49% #133	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	8.2 #25	8.4 #57	16.6 #38	6.7 #57	10.1 #8	16.8 #20
TLSA allowed	12.2 #133	6.9 #58	19.1 #125	9.7 #133	4.9 #32	14.6 #99

TLSA scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	3.6 #117	8.6 #53	12.2 #88	2.9 #127	7.3 #56	10.2 #108
UNT allowed	8.0 #117	12.4 #131	20.4 #128	7.4 #110	9.7 #123	17.1 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.