Tulane @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F11 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Tulane

9-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Final

Florida Atlantic

4-6 · Power #105

final

Closing spread

TULN -9

✓ TULN W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 28–20 FAU

✓ TULN (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -9

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTULN -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Road favorites of 7–11 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -9

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 9-point road favorite at FAU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 24–8; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 9.1; 42.2 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	MIA @ VT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9	20–14	L	U48.25
Very close	APP @ GASO 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	34–26	L	O45
Very close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Very close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	20–10	W	U45
Very close	WIS @ IU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	14–20	L	U45
Very close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	42–7	W	O44.5
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	UTAH @ STAN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-10.25	52–7	W	O51.75
Very close	SDSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	17–10	P	U45.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WLLLL	3-7	30%	2-2	3-6
FAU WLWLL	3-7	30%	0-5	2-2

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; FAU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UUOUU	1-8	11%	9-1
FAU OUOOU	5-4	56%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	1-8 11%
FAU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+6.3 →+2.0▼ 4.3#53

FAU−0.2 →−7.4▼ 7.2#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TULN

Longer bar = better

FAU

#56

Offense

◀ TULN better

#100

#47

Defense

◀ TULN better

#65

+0.2 #55

Turnovers

◀ TULN better

0.0 #73

66 plays #81

Pace

FAU faster ▶

68 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Even matchup

	TULN off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #66	25.8 #66	Even
Yards / play	6.06 #47	5.31 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #67	+0.10 #69	Even
Success rate	45% #42	43% #78	TULN

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	FAU off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #79	19.6 #26	TULN
Yards / play	5.10 #106	5.32 #47	TULN
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	+0.07 #52	TULN
Success rate	39% #103	42% #64	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.6 #18	8.5 #54	17.1 #33	6.2 #64	4.9 #110	11.1 #99
FAU allowed	5.1 #56	10.6 #118	15.7 #103	5.2 #55	4.9 #33	10.1 #32

FAU scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	6.2 #63	7.6 #75	13.8 #72	5.9 #71	5.9 #92	11.8 #83
TULN allowed	2.7 #13	6.1 #37	8.8 #22	6.2 #79	4.6 #24	10.8 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.