Oklahoma @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F4 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oklahoma

8-2 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

BYU

5-5 · Power #86

final

Closing spread

OU -25.5

✓ BYU W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 40–16 BYU

✓ OU (96%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -25.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOU -25.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -25.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 25.5-point road favorite at BYU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.8 against an average line of 24.5; 57.8 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ USF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-24	45–28	L	O58.5
Very close	WASH @ STAN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-27.5	42–33	L	O62
Very close	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Very close	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Close	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5
Close	OSU @ MSU 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & rest	-22.5	52–12	W	O59
Close	CIN @ TULN 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & rest	-28	31–12	L	U61.5
Close	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	55–0	W	O53
Close	ORE @ STAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-27	42–6	W	U61
Close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-21	41–16	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU WLLLW	7-3	70%	2-2	6-3
BYU LWLLL	3-7	30%	2-3	2-5

Venue/role: OU away, as favorite; BYU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU –UOUO	4-4	50%	8-2
BYU OUUUO	6-3	67%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 45% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-4 50%
BYU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+20.5 →+18.5▼ 2.0#6

BYU+3.3 →−5.9▼ 9.2#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

BYU

#10

Offense

◀ OU better

#122

#33

Defense

◀ OU better

#101

+0.9 #11

Turnovers

◀ OU better

+0.4 #36

75 plays #7

Pace

◀ OU faster

62 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: OU offense

	OU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	41.8 #4	28.7 #97	OU
Yards / play	6.72 #14	5.96 #102	OU
PPA / play	+0.27 #14	+0.16 #102	OU
Success rate	52% #7	44% #101	OU

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	BYU off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #107	19.8 #27	OU
Yards / play	4.82 #124	5.24 #44	OU
PPA / play	−0.02 #124	+0.01 #24	OU
Success rate	36% #132	38% #35	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	12.6 #2	12.4 #12	25.0 #3	9.0 #14	7.8 #43	16.8 #20
BYU allowed	9.0 #127	7.8 #84	16.8 #109	7.2 #104	4.7 #28	11.9 #63

BYU scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	6.2 #63	6.6 #92	12.8 #81	4.9 #96	4.2 #126	9.1 #122
OU allowed	4.4 #40	7.8 #84	12.2 #55	3.0 #13	4.6 #24	7.6 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.