Texas @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff89°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Texas

5-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Houston

3-3 · Power #88

final

Closing spread

TEX -23.5

✓ HOU W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 40–17 HOU

✓ TEX (95%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -23.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -23.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -23.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 23.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TEX won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 60.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.2 against an average line of 22.9; 63.2 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ USF 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-24	45–28	L	O58.5
Close	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Close	PITT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-21	54–29	W	O64.25
Close	OSU @ IU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-21	54–7	W	O59
Close	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Close	ND @ GT 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-20.5	31–13	L	U58.5
Close	OSU @ MSU 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-22.5	52–12	W	O59
Close	APP @ TXST 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-21.5	38–17	L	U58.5
Close	TENN @ SC 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-22.5	38–63	L	O67
Close	CIN @ TULN 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-28	31–12	L	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX WLWWL	3-3	50%	2-0	2-3
HOU LLWLW	3-3	50%	3-1	2-2

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX OUUU–	1-4	20%	5-1
HOU OUOOO	4-2	67%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 42% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEXlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	1-4 20%
HOUlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+8.6 →+18.6▲ 10.0#8

HOU−2.3 →−3.2▼ 0.9#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TEX

Longer bar = better

HOU

#28

Offense

◀ TEX better

#65

#19

Defense

◀ TEX better

#110

+0.2 #53

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+1.2 #9

71 plays #35

Pace

Even

71 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #29	31.3 #109	TEX
Yards / play	6.87 #16	6.12 #108	TEX
PPA / play	+0.26 #21	+0.22 #121	TEX
Success rate	45% #45	44% #100	TEX

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	HOU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #65	16.3 #16	TEX
Yards / play	5.82 #63	4.97 #29	TEX
PPA / play	+0.10 #76	−0.02 #20	TEX
Success rate	43% #57	34% #12	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	6.2 #65	10.0 #41	16.2 #53	7.8 #39	11.0 #7	18.8 #10
HOU allowed	11.0 #130	6.8 #59	17.8 #119	3.8 #29	7.2 #84	11.0 #53

HOU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.8 #49	9.2 #51	16.0 #55	3.5 #121	8.0 #43	11.5 #94
TEX allowed	3.3 #32	4.8 #21	8.2 #15	4.5 #45	3.7 #10	8.2 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.