Houston @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff36°F10 mphgusts 20DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston

3-4 · Power #88

final

Final

Kansas State

5-2 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -18

✓ KSU W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 18–37 KSU

✓ KSU (91%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -18

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKSU -18

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60.5

Line context

Home favorites of 16–20 since 2023: won 93%, covered 45% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -18

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as an 18-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 41–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 60.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 15.4 against an average line of 17.8; 52.6 points a game (usually 55.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND vs GT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18	55–0	W	U57.75
Very close	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Very close	NCST vs LT 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.75	34–27	L	O56
Very close	ORE vs UCLA 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-17.5	38–35	L	O61.5
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Very close	ND vs LOU 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-16	12–7	L	U62
Very close	UNC vs FSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	25–35	L	U64.5
Very close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Very close	APP vs GAST 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18	17–13	L	U63
Very close	UCLA vs STAN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	38–13	W	U64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LWLWW	4-3	57%	0-2	3-2
KSU LWLWW	5-2	71%	4-0	4-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOOOU	4-3	57%	3-4
KSU OO–OU	4-2	67%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 41% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
KSUlast 7	5-2 71%	5-2 71%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−2.3 →−2.0▲ 0.3#75

KSU+2.0 →+13.5▲ 11.5#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

HOU

Longer bar = better

KSU

#68

Offense

KSU better ▶

#22

#110

Defense

KSU better ▶

#36

+0.7 #25

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

+0.1 #62

70 plays #44

Pace

KSU faster ▶

73 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	HOU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #70	18.1 #19	KSU
Yards / play	5.85 #63	5.39 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #73	+0.02 #32	KSU
Success rate	42% #66	38% #35	KSU

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	36.9 #14	31.3 #114	KSU
Yards / play	6.49 #27	5.99 #102	KSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #27	+0.21 #122	KSU
Success rate	48% #19	44% #103	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.9 #72	9.9 #42	15.7 #55	4.0 #111	7.3 #53	11.3 #94
KSU allowed	4.7 #61	6.9 #60	11.6 #54	2.9 #12	3.7 #12	6.6 #7

KSU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	8.4 #24	11.9 #15	20.3 #10	8.4 #26	8.1 #35	16.6 #26
HOU allowed	11.4 #130	6.9 #60	18.3 #121	3.7 #28	7.1 #83	10.9 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.