Iowa State @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F5 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

4-3 · Power #35

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

3-4 · Power #93

final

Closing spread

ISU -3

✓ ISU W

Total

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 24–21 BAY

✓ ISU (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseISU -3

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseISU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Road favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 45% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseISU -3

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 3-point road favorite at BAY, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 30–18; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 2.9; 45.6 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	17–21	L	U45
Very close	RUTG @ NU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	7–21	L	U45
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5
Very close	RUTG @ ILL 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	20–14	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU LWLWW	4-3	57%	1-2	2-1
BAY LLWLW	2-4-1	33%	0-4-1	2-1-1

Venue/role: ISU away, as favorite; BAY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOO–U	2-4	33%	4-3
BAY UUO–O	2-3	40%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 93 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISUlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	2-4 33%
BAYlast 7	3-4 43%	2-4-1 33%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU−4.8 →+2.7▲ 7.5#48

BAY−3.4 →−2.9▲ 0.5#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ISU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#106

Offense

Even

#100

#28

Defense

◀ ISU better

#105

+1.0 #12

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

+0.4 #34

62 plays #119

Pace

BAY faster ▶

72 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #103	30.0 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #94	6.24 #121	ISU
PPA / play	+0.07 #95	+0.19 #109	Even
Success rate	35% #132	43% #87	BAY

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	BAY off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #101	20.0 #35	ISU
Yards / play	5.53 #80	4.81 #21	ISU
PPA / play	+0.05 #101	−0.01 #26	ISU
Success rate	38% #119	37% #29	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	5.9 #73	7.4 #81	13.3 #79	4.9 #99	4.9 #108	9.7 #114
BAY allowed	7.0 #106	10.9 #117	17.9 #117	4.9 #46	7.3 #88	12.1 #66

BAY scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	3.7 #114	7.0 #89	10.7 #106	4.7 #103	7.7 #44	12.4 #80
ISU allowed	5.4 #76	7.1 #64	12.6 #69	3.7 #28	3.7 #11	7.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.