Kansas @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kansas

6-2 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Iowa State

5-3 · Power #35

final

Closing spread

ISU -2.5

✓ KU W

Total

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 26–28 ISU

✗ ISU (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseISU -2.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseISU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 48% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseISU -2.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 2.5-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 28–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 54, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 2.5; 50.7 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs TEX 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.25	31–23	W	U56.5
Very close	BC vs FSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–26	L	U55.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	48–0	W	U57.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Very close	UK vs LSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	42–21	W	O50.5
Very close	WASH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.5	17–24	L	U55.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	31–38	L	O54.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU WLWLW	4-4	50%	0-3	1-1
ISU WLWWW	5-3	63%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU OU–OO	4-3	57%	6-2
ISU OO–UO	3-4	43%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 50–58 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KUlast 8	6-2 75%	4-4 50%	4-3 57%
ISUlast 8	5-3 63%	5-3 63%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+2.0 →+6.0▲ 4.0#33

ISU−4.8 →+3.5▲ 8.3#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

ISU

#11

Offense

◀ KU better

#99

#106

Defense

ISU better ▶

#26

+0.3 #45

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+0.9 #15

63 plays #101

Pace

◀ KU faster

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #18	19.8 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.99 #9	4.79 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #10	−0.01 #27	Even
Success rate	51% #8	37% #27	Even

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #94	28.1 #91	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #88	5.99 #102	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	+0.18 #104	Even
Success rate	36% #130	47% #125	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

KU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	7.4 #40	10.4 #27	17.8 #31	10.0 #9	8.0 #36	18.0 #13
ISU allowed	4.8 #54	7.0 #64	11.8 #53	4.0 #30	4.0 #14	8.0 #16

ISU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	6.0 #64	7.8 #74	13.8 #74	5.5 #86	4.6 #113	10.1 #108
KU allowed	5.1 #64	7.6 #79	12.8 #66	6.0 #71	9.4 #118	15.4 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.