Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

7-1 · Power #9

final

Final

Oklahoma State

6-2 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -6

✓ OKST W

Total

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 33–26 OKST

✗ OU (70%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -6

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOU -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62

Line context

Road favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 67%, covered 55% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -6

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 6-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OKST won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 62, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 65%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 6.9; 65.3 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Very close	LSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	49–39	W	O63.5
Very close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Very close	TEX @ TCU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	32–27	W	U65.5
Very close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	TEX @ OKST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Very close	UNC @ UVA 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	41–44	L	O61
Very close	OU @ KU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	33–38	L	O66.5
Very close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-9	55–14	W	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU WWWLL	6-2	75%	2-1	5-2
OKST LWWWW	5-3	63%	3-2	3-1

Venue/role: OU away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UO–UO	3-3	50%	7-1
OKST O–OOO	4-3	57%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 42% of games with totals 58–66 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OUlast 8	7-1 88%	6-2 75%	3-3 50%
OKSTlast 8	6-2 75%	5-3 63%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

OU 85–20 OKST (7 tied) OU leads · 112 games since 1912 · OKST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+20.5 →+18.0▼ 2.5#7

OKST−1.5 →+5.0▲ 6.5#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

OKST

#14

Offense

◀ OU better

#54

#31

Defense

◀ OU better

#69

+1.3 #4

Turnovers

◀ OU better

+0.4 #41

76 plays #5

Pace

◀ OU faster

72 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: OU offense

	OU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	41.9 #4	24.4 #58	OU
Yards / play	6.42 #30	5.99 #101	OU
PPA / play	+0.26 #18	+0.10 #71	OU
Success rate	53% #5	39% #47	OU

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	OKST off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #46	18.9 #23	OU
Yards / play	5.99 #52	5.22 #44	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #45	+0.01 #31	Even
Success rate	42% #71	37% #26	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	13.1 #1	12.5 #12	25.6 #2	8.6 #20	7.6 #45	16.3 #31
OKST allowed	4.8 #53	9.5 #103	14.3 #89	4.5 #40	5.6 #51	10.1 #41

OKST scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	7.3 #44	6.1 #105	13.4 #78	5.9 #78	11.9 #3	17.8 #16
OU allowed	3.8 #28	7.6 #79	11.4 #50	3.0 #11	4.5 #25	7.5 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.