Penn State @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Penn State

7-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

5-3 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

PSU -7.5

✓ PSU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 30–22 MD

✓ PSU (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -7.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePSU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 56% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -7.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 7.5-point road favorite at MD, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 51–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 6.8; 54.7 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75
Very close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Close	WISC @ MICH 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	49–11	W	O51.5
Close	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	45–3	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU WWWLL	6-2	75%	2-1	6-1
MD WWLLL	3-5	38%	2-3	0-1

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU UOOUO	4-3	57%	7-1
MD UO–OO	5-2	71%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 124 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSUlast 8	7-1 88%	6-2 75%	4-3 57%
MDlast 8	5-3 63%	3-5 38%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+6.6 →+17.1▲ 10.5#9

MD+3.0 →+6.4▲ 3.4#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PSU

Longer bar = better

#46

Offense

Even

#40

Defense

◀ PSU better

#38

+1.5 #1

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

+0.6 #25

76 plays #8

Pace

◀ PSU faster

69 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	38.9 #11	20.4 #32	PSU
Yards / play	5.19 #97	5.11 #33	MD
PPA / play	+0.18 #47	+0.03 #35	Even
Success rate	47% #27	40% #51	PSU

When MD has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	MD off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.6 #36	11.5 #3	PSU
Yards / play	6.05 #51	4.00 #2	PSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #31	−0.10 #3	PSU
Success rate	45% #43	32% #2	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.3 #62	10.8 #25	17.0 #38	11.8 #3	10.1 #13	21.9 #2
MD allowed	6.5 #96	4.1 #12	10.6 #40	4.0 #29	5.8 #55	9.8 #33

MD scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	10.5 #9	7.0 #90	17.5 #32	6.1 #70	9.0 #21	15.1 #39
PSU allowed	2.5 #13	4.4 #16	6.9 #7	0.0 #1	4.6 #29	4.6 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.