Illinois @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

3-5 · Power #67

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota

5-3 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

MINN -2.5

✓ ILL W

Total

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 22–25 MINN

✗ MINN (58%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -2.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMINN -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -2.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 2.5-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ILL won 27–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 44, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 3.3; 45.5 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ILL vs NEB 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	7–20	L	U42
Very close	CIN vs BAY 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	29–32	L	O50.5
Very close	GT vs UVA 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	9–16	L	U48
Very close	VT vs BC 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	27–10	W	U45
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	GT vs MIA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	14–35	L	O43.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	MD vs IU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	38–35	L	O48
Very close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	38–10	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL LLLWL	1-7	13%	1-2	1-3
MINN LWLWW	3-5	38%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL UO–OO	3-3	50%	3-5
MINN OO–UU	2-4	33%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 76 earlier overs in games with totals 40–48, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILLlast 8	3-5 38%	1-7 13%	3-3 50%
MINNlast 8	5-3 63%	3-5 38%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL−0.7 →−1.3▼ 0.6#71

MINN−0.1 →−0.1–#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ILL

Longer bar = better

MINN

#82

Offense

◀ ILL better

#109

#88

Defense

MINN better ▶

#59

−0.5 #112

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.5 #29

67 plays #74

Pace

Even

66 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	ILL off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #115	22.8 #48	MINN
Yards / play	5.49 #83	5.62 #74	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #91	+0.07 #55	MINN
Success rate	45% #40	41% #60	Even

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: ILL defense

	MINN off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #111	27.8 #88	ILL
Yards / play	4.81 #122	5.36 #54	ILL
PPA / play	+0.03 #104	+0.17 #102	Even
Success rate	39% #98	45% #106	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	3.0 #118	7.4 #81	10.4 #113	5.9 #78	4.1 #123	10.0 #112
MINN allowed	4.1 #39	7.3 #66	11.4 #50	4.3 #36	6.4 #69	10.6 #46

MINN scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	2.5 #127	8.0 #72	10.5 #112	4.1 #109	6.1 #87	10.3 #105
ILL allowed	6.1 #87	8.9 #95	15.0 #100	6.4 #84	6.4 #69	12.8 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.