Wisconsin @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F18 mphgusts 33DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wisconsin

4-2 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

Illinois

3-4 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

WIS -3

✓ WIS W

Total

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 24–20 ILL

✓ WIS (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -3

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWIS -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Line context

Road favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 41% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -3

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 3-point road favorite at ILL, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WIS won 25–21; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 41, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 3.3; 45.6 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–38	L	O40
Very close	CSU @ WYO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–31	L	O41.5
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Close	MRSH @ ODU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	12–0	W	U46.5
Close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Close	SJSU @ SDSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-2.25	27–43	L	O41
Close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	35–21	W	O45
Close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	13–3	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	2-4
ILL LLLLW	1-6	14%	0-4	1-2

Venue/role: WIS away, as favorite; ILL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UUO–U	2-3	40%	4-2
ILL UUO–O	2-3	40%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 34 earlier overs in games with totals 37–45, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WISlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-3 40%
ILLlast 7	3-4 43%	1-6 14%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+6.6 →+8.0▲ 1.4#26

ILL−0.7 →−1.2▼ 0.5#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WIS

Longer bar = better

ILL

#72

Offense

Even

#82

#22

Defense

◀ WIS better

#89

0.0 #67

Turnovers

◀ WIS better

−0.7 #119

73 plays #22

Pace

◀ WIS faster

67 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Even matchup

	WIS off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #80	28.1 #90	Even
Yards / play	5.52 #80	5.42 #59	ILL
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	+0.17 #98	Even
Success rate	46% #34	45% #110	WIS

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	ILL off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #119	17.8 #20	WIS
Yards / play	5.57 #75	4.91 #27	WIS
PPA / play	+0.07 #98	−0.05 #16	WIS
Success rate	46% #35	37% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	4.5 #98	6.8 #103	11.3 #106	10.0 #14	5.8 #89	15.8 #34
ILL allowed	7.0 #105	9.1 #96	16.1 #103	7.3 #95	4.7 #38	12.0 #67

ILL scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	2.4 #126	7.4 #84	9.9 #116	5.7 #81	4.7 #110	10.4 #105
WIS allowed	2.8 #19	5.7 #36	8.5 #20	4.5 #46	4.8 #41	9.3 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.