Minnesota @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F20 mphgusts 35DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota

3-3 · Power #79

▲ winner

Final

Iowa

6-1 · Power #54

final

Closing spread

IOWA -3.5

✓ MINN W

Total

30.5

▼ Under · 22 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 13–18 IOWA

✗ IOWA (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -3.5

Total30.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIOWA -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close30.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 44% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -3.5

Total30.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 3.5-point home favorite against MINN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 12–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 22 points stayed under 30.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 3.6; 44.9 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	34–27	W	O36
Close	IOWA vs PUR 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–14	W	U38.5
Close	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-4	27–22	W	O37
Close	RUTG vs MSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	27–24	L	O39.5
Close	MINN vs IOWA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-2	10–13	L	U31.5
Loose	WISC vs IOWA 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	27–7	W	U35.75
Loose	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-6	35–13	W	O38
Loose	ARMY vs GASO 2020 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread	-3.5	28–27	L	O38.5
Loose	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Loose	WISC vs MINN 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread	-3	16–23	L	O37

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-2	0-2
IOWA WLPWW	4-2-1	67%	2-1-1	3-1-1

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UUOO–	2-2	50%	3-3
IOWA OUO–U	2-4	33%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINNlast 6	3-3 50%	1-5 17%	2-2 50%
IOWAlast 7	6-1 86%	4-2-1 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MINN 62–54 IOWA (2 tied) MINN leads · 118 games since 1901 · IOWA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−0.1 →−1.2▼ 1.1#71

IOWA+3.8 →+3.9▲ 0.1#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MINN

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#100

Offense

◀ MINN better

#128

#94

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#12

+0.3 #38

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

+0.1 #60

64 plays #103

Pace

◀ MINN faster

56 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	MINN off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #112	14.9 #11	IOWA
Yards / play	4.92 #119	4.28 #6	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	−0.10 #7	IOWA
Success rate	42% #66	37% #23	IOWA

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	IOWA off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #115	26.7 #78	MINN
Yards / play	4.38 #131	6.17 #113	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #132	+0.13 #87	MINN
Success rate	31% #135	44% #98	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	2.8 #121	9.0 #57	11.8 #103	4.5 #106	4.8 #109	9.3 #118
IOWA allowed	1.9 #7	4.1 #16	6.0 #9	4.3 #42	4.6 #34	8.9 #29

IOWA scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.9 #106	6.9 #100	10.7 #109	3.7 #119	6.4 #68	10.1 #110
MINN allowed	4.0 #44	8.5 #86	12.5 #67	5.7 #72	7.5 #93	13.2 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.