Rutgers @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F10 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Rutgers

5-2 · Power #51

▲ winner

Final

Indiana

2-4 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

RUTG -6

✓ RUTG W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 24–18 IU

✓ RUTG (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRUTG -6

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseRUTG -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Line context

Road favorites of 4–8 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRUTG -6

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RUTG as a 6-point road favorite at IU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 31–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 6.6; 41.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Very close	MINN @ IU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	35–14	W	O43.25
Very close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	19–24	L	P43
Very close	SDSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	17–10	P	U45.25
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	WASH @ COLO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	17–20	L	U43
Close	M-OH @ WMU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	34–21	W	O45
Close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Close	TROY @ ARMY 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–0	W	U42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG WPWWL	5-1-1	83%	1-0-1	4-1
IU WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: RUTG away, as favorite; IU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG OUO–O	3-3	50%	5-2
IU OUOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 21 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 43% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTGlast 7	5-2 71%	5-1-1 83%	3-3 50%
IUlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+1.6 →+2.7▲ 1.1#48

IU−10.1 →−7.1▲ 3.0#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

RUTG

Longer bar = better

#80

Offense

◀ RUTG better

#124

#31

Defense

◀ RUTG better

#107

+0.6 #29

Turnovers

◀ RUTG better

−0.5 #108

63 plays #109

Pace

IU faster ▶

66 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: RUTG offense

	RUTG off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #75	29.0 #95	Even
Yards / play	5.26 #102	5.96 #97	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	+0.20 #116	RUTG
Success rate	41% #85	46% #121	RUTG

When IU has the ball

Advantage: RUTG defense

	IU off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #126	16.0 #14	RUTG
Yards / play	4.84 #122	4.30 #7	RUTG
PPA / play	−0.03 #125	−0.04 #17	RUTG
Success rate	37% #123	43% #84	RUTG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	5.9 #70	6.7 #104	12.6 #89	3.9 #116	11.3 #6	15.1 #44
IU allowed	5.8 #84	9.0 #95	14.8 #93	7.3 #95	5.2 #46	12.5 #74

IU scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	5.2 #88	2.2 #133	7.3 #129	4.7 #103	4.5 #113	9.2 #120
RUTG allowed	2.4 #16	5.3 #29	7.7 #12	3.4 #20	4.9 #43	8.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.