Indiana @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F10 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indiana

2-5 · Power #89

final

Final

Penn State

6-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -31

✓ IU W

Total

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 7–38 PSU

✓ PSU (99%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -31

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePSU -31

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -31

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 31-point home favorite against IU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 33–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 45, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 97%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 32.1 against an average line of 30.5; 51.1 points a game (usually 56.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Close	BYU vs WKU 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-30.5	41–10	W	U52.5
Close	ND vs SYR 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-34	45–21	L	O51
Close	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Close	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Close	MICH vs IU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-33.5	52–7	W	O45.5
Close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Loose	MSST vs BGSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-31	45–14	P	O53
Loose	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Loose	IOWA vs WMU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-28.5	41–10	W	O43.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU WLLLL	3-4	43%	0-2	2-3
PSU WWWWL	6-1	86%	4-0	6-0

Venue/role: IU away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UOOOO	5-2	71%	2-5
PSU UUOOU	3-3	50%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 70 earlier overs in games with totals 41–49, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IUlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	5-2 71%
PSUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IU 3–25 PSU PSU leads · 28 games since 1993 · IU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU−10.1 →−7.9▲ 2.2#102

PSU+6.6 →+18.4▲ 11.8#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

PSU

#124

Offense

PSU better ▶

#43

#106

Defense

PSU better ▶

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+1.6 #1

65 plays #92

Pace

PSU faster ▶

76 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	IU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #126	9.7 #2	PSU
Yards / play	4.82 #120	3.67 #1	PSU
PPA / play	−0.04 #130	−0.13 #2	PSU
Success rate	37% #121	31% #3	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #10	29.3 #97	PSU
Yards / play	5.27 #96	5.77 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #43	+0.20 #114	PSU
Success rate	48% #21	47% #127	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

IU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	5.4 #77	2.9 #132	8.3 #125	4.0 #111	3.9 #124	7.9 #125
PSU allowed	1.9 #5	4.0 #13	5.9 #6	0.0 #1	3.9 #17	3.9 #2

PSU scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.1 #68	10.9 #29	17.0 #44	12.4 #2	10.3 #15	22.7 #2
IU allowed	6.0 #87	9.1 #97	15.1 #101	7.3 #105	5.4 #48	12.7 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.