Purdue @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F14 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Purdue

2-5 · Power #66

final

Final

Nebraska

4-3 · Power #62

▲ winner

Closing spread

PUR -1.5

✓ NEB W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 22–21 NEB

✗ PUR (51%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePUR -1.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePUR -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePUR -1.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PUR as a 1.5-point road favorite at NEB, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 31–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 2.5; 43.6 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RUTG @ ILL 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	20–14	W	U41.5
Close	WSU @ WASH 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-1	40–13	W	O45
Close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	21–38	L	O40
Close	CSU @ WYO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-3	17–31	L	O41.5
Close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	TOL @ SDSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-3	14–17	L	U44.5
Close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Close	TCU @ BAY 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	33–23	W	O47.5
Close	RUTG @ NU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	7–21	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LLWLL	2-5	29%	1-1	0-1
NEB WLLWL	3-4	43%	1-3	2-2

Venue/role: PUR away, as favorite; NEB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UOO–U	2-3	40%	2-5
NEB OUO–U	2-3	40%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 25 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 44% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PURlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	2-3 40%
NEBlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−4.2 →−0.7▲ 3.5#66

NEB+0.1 →0.0▼ 0.1#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

PUR

Longer bar = better

NEB

#92

Offense

Even

#105

#87

Defense

NEB better ▶

#33

−0.1 #79

Turnovers

◀ PUR better

−1.1 #130

73 plays #23

Pace

◀ PUR faster

61 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	PUR off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #102	19.3 #26	NEB
Yards / play	5.11 #107	4.68 #16	NEB
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.06 #51	NEB
Success rate	43% #55	38% #37	Even

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #122	29.9 #101	PUR
Yards / play	5.38 #90	5.79 #87	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #113	+0.13 #90	PUR
Success rate	40% #95	41% #68	PUR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	3.3 #118	6.9 #94	10.1 #115	7.0 #50	5.9 #89	12.9 #74
NEB allowed	2.9 #16	6.7 #55	9.6 #28	2.4 #8	7.3 #88	9.7 #36

NEB scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	1.9 #133	5.0 #120	6.9 #132	4.4 #105	7.4 #52	11.9 #88
PUR allowed	7.3 #112	9.7 #106	17.0 #113	4.4 #40	8.4 #103	12.9 #77

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.