Ohio State @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F12 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ohio State

5-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

2-4 · Power #66

final

Closing spread

OSU -17.5

✓ OSU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 35–18 PUR

✓ OSU (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -17.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOSU -17.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -17.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 17.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 41–7; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 25.1 against an average line of 17.5; 57.9 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ MD 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16	59–18	W	O57.75
Very close	TEX @ BAY 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	38–6	W	U49.5
Very close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Very close	CIN @ ECU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	35–13	W	U56.5
Close	UTAH @ ASU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.75	34–13	W	U54
Close	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-16.25	45–19	W	O53
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75
Close	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	52–10	W	O46
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	UGA @ TENN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-19.5	41–17	W	O55.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU LLWPW	2-2-1	50%	0-1-1	2-2-1
PUR WLLWL	2-4	33%	1-3	0-3

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU UUOU–	1-3	25%	5-0
PUR UUOO–	2-2	50%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSUlast 5	5-0 100%	2-2-1 50%	1-3 25%
PURlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+8.6 →+19.3▲ 10.7#6

PUR−4.2 →+0.7▲ 4.9#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

OSU

Longer bar = better

PUR

#23

Offense

◀ OSU better

#87

#13

Defense

◀ OSU better

#66

+0.8 #21

Turnovers

◀ OSU better

−0.5 #107

63 plays #107

Pace

PUR faster ▶

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #28	28.0 #88	OSU
Yards / play	6.92 #20	5.58 #73	OSU
PPA / play	+0.37 #7	+0.09 #61	OSU
Success rate	46% #37	38% #43	Even

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	PUR off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #90	10.2 #3	OSU
Yards / play	5.34 #99	4.09 #4	OSU
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	−0.04 #17	OSU
Success rate	44% #55	37% #28	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	5.6 #77	13.0 #13	18.6 #32	8.2 #37	8.2 #42	16.4 #33
PUR allowed	6.3 #99	10.2 #108	16.5 #104	2.8 #18	8.7 #108	11.5 #61

PUR scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	3.8 #107	8.0 #80	11.8 #102	8.2 #40	5.7 #92	13.8 #65
OSU allowed	3.4 #36	2.6 #4	6.0 #7	2.8 #15	1.4 #2	4.2 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.