Illinois @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F5 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Illinois

2-4 · Power #67

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

5-1 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

MD -13.5

✓ ILL W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 20–33 MD

✗ MD (84%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -13.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMD -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -13.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MD as a 13.5-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 13.4; 55.2 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-14	44–17	W	O50
Very close	PSU vs IU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.25	24–0	W	U54
Very close	WASH vs STAN 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-12	26–31	L	O49.5
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13	35–33	L	O48
Very close	BAY vs TTU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	27–24	L	U51.5
Very close	MIAMI vs UVA 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	19–14	L	U54
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Very close	MD vs NU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-14.25	31–24	L	O51
Very close	CCU vs GAST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	40–42	L	O53.5
Very close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	56–28	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL LLLLL	0-6	0%	0-2	0-2
MD LWWWL	3-3	50%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; MD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL UUUO–	1-3	25%	2-4
MD OOUO–	3-2	60%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 88 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 39% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILLlast 6	2-4 33%	0-6 0%	1-3 25%
MDlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL−0.7 →−2.1▼ 1.4#76

MD+3.0 →+8.1▲ 5.1#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ILL

Longer bar = better

#83

Offense

MD better ▶

#36

#92

Defense

MD better ▶

#32

−0.8 #122

Turnovers

MD better ▶

+1.2 #10

67 plays #72

Pace

MD faster ▶

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	ILL off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #122	17.2 #21	MD
Yards / play	5.66 #74	5.02 #31	MD
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	−0.03 #21	MD
Success rate	46% #36	39% #55	Even

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #30	28.8 #91	MD
Yards / play	6.28 #42	5.40 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #29	+0.17 #103	MD
Success rate	45% #42	45% #112	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	1.7 #132	7.5 #84	9.2 #121	5.0 #97	5.0 #101	10.0 #107
MD allowed	5.2 #72	2.7 #5	7.8 #19	3.2 #21	6.2 #64	9.3 #32

MD scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	10.5 #15	7.7 #82	18.2 #34	6.5 #66	10.3 #14	16.8 #28
ILL allowed	7.0 #106	9.5 #103	16.5 #104	7.3 #96	5.0 #43	12.3 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.