Troy @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Army

Weather at kickoff49°F3 mphWet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Troy

4-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Army

2-3 · Power #104

final

Closing spread

TROY -6.5

✓ TROY W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 24–18 ARMY

✓ TROY (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 6.5-point road favorite at ARMY, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 19–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 41.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 6.2; 50.7 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	19–24	L	P43
Very close	UAB @ RICE 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	21–16	L	U42.5
Very close	PITT @ BC 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	30–31	L	O42.5
Very close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Very close	UL @ TROY 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	35–21	W	O48
Very close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Very close	ASU @ WASH 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	35–30	L	O45.5
Close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-4.25	42–16	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-3
ARMY LWWPL	2-2-1	50%	1-1	1-0-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as favorite; ARMY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OUUU–	2-3	40%	4-2
ARMY –OOU–	2-1	67%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 61% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROYlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-3 40%
ARMYlast 5	2-3 40%	2-2-1 50%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY0.0 →+1.6▲ 1.6#55

ARMY−0.7 →−3.4▼ 2.7#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TROY

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#74

Offense

Even

#79

#22

Defense

◀ TROY better

#60

−0.8 #121

Turnovers

ARMY better ▶

−0.4 #100

69 plays #55

Pace

◀ TROY faster

63 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #79	20.4 #39	ARMY
Yards / play	6.45 #35	5.28 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #74	+0.09 #62	Even
Success rate	39% #108	43% #85	ARMY

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	ARMY off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #71	20.3 #38	TROY
Yards / play	5.64 #76	4.69 #18	TROY
PPA / play	+0.13 #70	−0.08 #10	TROY
Success rate	39% #100	36% #23	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	5.2 #85	8.8 #65	14.0 #77	6.3 #68	7.5 #57	13.8 #64
ARMY allowed	1.2 #4	5.4 #32	6.6 #10	5.4 #65	8.4 #104	13.8 #91

ARMY scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	7.2 #44	8.6 #68	15.8 #61	6.2 #72	7.4 #61	13.6 #72
TROY allowed	3.3 #33	8.0 #84	11.3 #59	2.8 #17	6.2 #64	9.0 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.