UL Monroe @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

2-3 · Power #129

final

Final

Texas State

4-2 · Power #73

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -19.5

✓ ULM W

Total

64.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 21–40 TXST

✓ TXST (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -19.5

Total64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTXST -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close64.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -19.5

Total64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 19.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 21–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 64.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 18.5 against an average line of 19.3; 48.1 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU vs NIU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-18.5	30–27	L	U64.5
Very close	SMU vs USF 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21.25	41–17	W	U68.5
Very close	MRSH vs ODU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-21	20–13	L	U62.5
Very close	UNC vs GT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-21.25	17–21	L	U63
Close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-17	17–13	L	U62
Close	SJSU vs UNLV 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	34–17	P	U61
Close	LIB vs ULM 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-17	40–7	W	U63.5
Close	MRSH vs FIU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-21.5	38–0	W	U64
Close	WKU vs CLT 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	45–13	W	U71.75
Close	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-19	51–20	W	O58.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WLLWL	2-3	40%	0-1	2-2
TXST WWLWL	4-2	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM –UUO–	1-2	33%	2-3
TXST UOUOU	2-3	40%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 46 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 46% of games with totals 60.5–68.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULMlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	1-2 33%
TXSTlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ULM 6–8 TXST TXST leads · 14 games since 2000 · TXST has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM+0.7 →−13.8▼ 14.5#125

TXST+3.4 →−1.4▼ 4.8#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ULM

Longer bar = better

TXST

#107

Offense

TXST better ▶

#13

#119

Defense

TXST better ▶

#74

+1.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ ULM better

0.0 #69

60 plays #124

Pace

TXST faster ▶

68 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	ULM off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #127	29.8 #100	TXST
Yards / play	5.42 #95	5.61 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	+0.06 #53	TXST
Success rate	39% #106	42% #69	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	41.2 #8	34.0 #122	TXST
Yards / play	7.38 #8	6.42 #121	TXST
PPA / play	+0.27 #22	+0.20 #116	TXST
Success rate	50% #13	46% #118	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	4.2 #102	8.2 #77	12.4 #92	2.4 #130	3.4 #124	5.8 #130
TXST allowed	5.8 #85	8.2 #84	14.0 #85	6.3 #85	9.5 #117	15.8 #104

TXST scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	12.2 #7	13.8 #9	26.0 #5	6.3 #68	8.8 #29	15.2 #44
ULM allowed	7.6 #114	11.6 #122	19.2 #127	6.2 #81	8.6 #105	14.8 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.