Wyoming @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Wyoming

5-1 · Power #74

final

Final

Air Force

5-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

AFA -12.5

✓ WYO W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

WYO 15–28 AFA

✓ AFA (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -12.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAFA -12.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -12.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 12.5-point home favorite against WYO, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 34–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 13; 48.4 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA vs SDSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-10.5	49–10	W	O43.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & spread	-14	27–24	L	O44.5
Close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Close	PITT vs NCST 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	29–30	L	O46
Close	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5
Close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	35–33	L	O48
Close	ASU vs COLO 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	35–13	W	O45.5
Close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-14	44–17	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO LWPLW	3-2-1	60%	1-0	3-0
AFA LLWWW	3-2	60%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: WYO away, as underdog; AFA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO UUUO–	1-3	25%	5-1
AFA UUOOO	3-2	60%	5-0

Went over in Q3. Of 34 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYOlast 6	5-1 83%	3-2-1 60%	1-3 25%
AFAlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WYO 28–32 AFA (3 tied) AFA leads · 63 games since 1957 · AFA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WYO−2.7 →−3.0▼ 0.3#84

AFA+5.5 →+7.2▲ 1.7#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WYO

Longer bar = better

AFA

#86

Offense

AFA better ▶

#16

#62

Defense

AFA better ▶

#19

+0.5 #43

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

+0.8 #20

60 plays #125

Pace

AFA faster ▶

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	WYO off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #87	12.2 #8	AFA
Yards / play	5.42 #94	4.27 #6	AFA
PPA / play	+0.08 #91	−0.02 #25	AFA
Success rate	42% #73	38% #36	AFA

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #16	24.2 #65	AFA
Yards / play	6.37 #36	5.18 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.42 #6	+0.09 #64	AFA
Success rate	55% #4	42% #77	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WYO scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	5.5 #77	8.0 #78	13.5 #83	6.2 #71	4.0 #120	10.2 #109
AFA allowed	1.2 #4	6.2 #49	7.4 #13	2.0 #10	2.8 #9	4.8 #6

AFA scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	7.8 #34	12.4 #15	20.2 #15	8.4 #32	9.0 #26	17.4 #20
WYO allowed	5.3 #80	5.5 #34	10.8 #52	1.0 #4	10.2 #123	11.2 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.