Indiana @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Indiana

2-2 · Power #89

final

Final

Maryland

4-0 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

MD -14.5

✓ MD W

Total

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 17–32 MD

✓ MD (86%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -14.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMD -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -14.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MD as a 14.5-point home favorite against IU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MD won 44–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 50, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.7 against an average line of 14.5; 55.5 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Very close	CCU vs GAST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-12.5	40–42	L	O53.5
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Very close	ASU vs STAN 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	28–10	W	U53.5
Very close	DUKE vs NU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-17	38–14	W	O48
Very close	APP vs TROY 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-14	47–10	W	O50.5
Very close	CCU vs TROY 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-17	35–28	L	O50
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-13	20–22	L	U51
Very close	BAY vs TTU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	27–24	L	U51.5
Close	MD vs NU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-14.25	31–24	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU WWWL	3-1	75%	—	2-0
MD LLWW	2-2	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: IU away, as underdog; MD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UOUO	2-2	50%	2-2
MD UOOU	2-2	50%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 69 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IUlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
MDlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU−10.1 →−4.8▲ 5.3#87

MD+3.0 →+7.7▲ 4.7#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

#107

Offense

MD better ▶

#28

#73

Defense

MD better ▶

#35

+0.5 #42

Turnovers

MD better ▶

+2.0 #3

63 plays #104

Pace

MD faster ▶

69 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	IU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #105	12.3 #11	MD
Yards / play	5.34 #95	5.02 #45	MD
PPA / play	+0.02 #109	−0.08 #17	MD
Success rate	37% #118	40% #65	MD

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #27	19.5 #43	Even
Yards / play	6.51 #33	5.35 #64	MD
PPA / play	+0.32 #20	+0.10 #79	MD
Success rate	48% #32	45% #106	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

IU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	5.3 #76	3.3 #125	8.5 #124	7.0 #53	3.3 #123	10.3 #100
MD allowed	7.0 #108	1.5 #1	8.5 #39	2.3 #16	1.5 #1	3.8 #7

MD scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	8.8 #30	9.3 #56	18.0 #40	5.5 #77	13.8 #3	19.3 #20
IU allowed	3.5 #47	6.8 #64	10.3 #55	4.3 #51	2.5 #9	6.8 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.