Indiana @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F15 mphgusts 28Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indiana

2-3 · Power #89

final

Final

Michigan

6-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -32.5

✓ MICH W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 7–39 MICH

✓ MICH (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -32.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -32.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -32.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like MICH as a 32.5-point home favorite against IU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MICH won 52–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 8 similar games. 59 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 8.

Favorite won

8 of 8100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 30.9 against an average line of 32.1; 52.9 points a game (usually 56.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Close	ND vs CMU 2023 · Week 3 · close	-34.75	41–17	L	O51.25
Loose	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Loose	ND vs SYR 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread	-34	45–21	L	O51
Loose	OSU vs IOWA 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & season form	-29.75	54–10	W	O50
Loose	BYU vs WKU 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-30.5	41–10	W	U52.5
Loose	UGA vs GT 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form	-36.5	37–14	L	O49
Loose	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & total	-31	31–10	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU WWWLL	3-2	60%	0-1	2-1
MICH LLPWW	2-3-1	40%	0-3-1	2-3-1

Venue/role: IU away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UOUOO	3-2	60%	2-3
MICH UUUO–	1-4	20%	6-0

Went over in Q4. Of 61 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IUlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
MICHlast 6	6-0 100%	2-3-1 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IU 11–62 MICH MICH leads · 73 games since 1900 · IU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU−10.1 →−6.1▲ 4.0#95

MICH+8.4 →+20.4▲ 12.0#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

MICH

#120

Offense

MICH better ▶

#11

#92

Defense

MICH better ▶

+0.2 #55

Turnovers

MICH better ▶

+0.5 #40

66 plays #79

Pace

◀ IU faster

60 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	IU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #114	6.7 #1	MICH
Yards / play	5.05 #116	4.46 #12	MICH
PPA / play	−0.02 #123	−0.22 #1	MICH
Success rate	36% #127	26% #1	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #17	24.4 #66	MICH
Yards / play	6.95 #17	5.88 #91	MICH
PPA / play	+0.44 #5	+0.16 #102	MICH
Success rate	57% #3	45% #109	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

IU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	4.8 #94	2.6 #132	7.4 #130	5.6 #83	5.4 #97	11.0 #99
MICH allowed	1.7 #9	2.2 #1	3.8 #1	0.0 #1	2.8 #9	2.8 #1

MICH scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	8.7 #27	12.0 #19	20.7 #11	12.7 #4	4.0 #116	16.7 #29
IU allowed	7.0 #106	6.6 #57	13.6 #83	5.4 #64	3.4 #16	8.8 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.