Iowa @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F14 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Iowa

5-1 · Power #54

▲ winner

Final

Wisconsin

4-1 · Power #42

final

Closing spread

WIS -8.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

34.5

▼ Under · 21 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 14–23 WIS

✗ WIS (74%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -8.5

Total34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWIS -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close34.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 52% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -8.5

Total34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as an 8.5-point home favorite against IOWA, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 15–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 34.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 8.2; 45.3 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	35–13	W	O38
Close	IOWA vs MSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	26–16	L	O36.5
Close	IOWA vs NEB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	17–24	L	O38
Loose	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	27–22	W	O37
Loose	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10	27–21	L	O41
Loose	IOWA vs ILL 2021 · Week 12 · loose	-12	33–23	L	O38.25
Loose	RUTG vs VT 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	35–16	W	O37.5
Loose	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Loose	PUR vs IOWA 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	3–24	L	U39.25
Loose	ARMY vs NAVY 2020 · Week 15 · loose · similar total & spread	-7.5	15–0	W	U35.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA WWLPW	3-2-1	60%	1-1	0-1
WIS LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: IOWA away, as underdog; WIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UOUO–	2-3	40%	5-1
WIS OUUO–	2-2	50%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWAlast 6	5-1 83%	3-2-1 60%	2-3 40%
WISlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IOWA 48–49 WIS (2 tied) WIS leads · 99 games since 1894 · IOWA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+3.8 →+2.5▼ 1.3#48

WIS+6.6 →+10.6▲ 4.0#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

IOWA

Longer bar = better

WIS

#126

Offense

WIS better ▶

#52

#16

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#34

−0.2 #78

Turnovers

WIS better ▶

+0.4 #44

56 plays #133

Pace

WIS faster ▶

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	IOWA off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #111	18.4 #28	WIS
Yards / play	4.49 #129	5.10 #37	WIS
PPA / play	−0.07 #129	−0.03 #19	WIS
Success rate	33% #134	39% #52	WIS

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	WIS off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #49	16.3 #16	IOWA
Yards / play	5.79 #65	4.29 #7	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.14 #68	−0.08 #11	IOWA
Success rate	48% #24	37% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	4.5 #97	6.8 #101	11.3 #108	4.3 #110	6.2 #83	10.5 #105
WIS allowed	3.4 #35	5.4 #32	8.8 #29	5.4 #67	4.2 #28	9.6 #35

WIS scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	5.4 #84	8.2 #77	13.6 #81	10.8 #8	7.0 #64	17.8 #19
IOWA allowed	2.2 #12	4.8 #22	7.0 #12	4.0 #36	5.3 #50	9.3 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.