Wyoming @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 5:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Wyoming

5-2 · Power #74

final

Final

Boise State

3-4 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -4.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

WYO 23–27 BOIS

✓ BOIS (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -4.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBOIS -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 48% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBOIS -4.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 4.5-point home favorite against WYO, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 32–7; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 3.6; 44.2 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	STAN vs ASU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	15–14	L	U52
Very close	GT vs UVA 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	9–16	L	U48
Very close	STAN vs WASH 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Close	CSU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	32–14	W	O44.5
Close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Close	RUTG vs IU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-3	24–17	W	U48
Close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Close	BAY vs KSU 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & spread	-5.5	32–31	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO WPLWW	4-2-1	67%	2-0	4-0
BOIS WLPPL	2-3-2	40%	2-0-1	1-2-1

Venue/role: WYO away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO UUO–O	2-3	40%	5-2
BOIS OOO–O	4-1	80%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 56% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYOlast 7	5-2 71%	4-2-1 67%	2-3 40%
BOISlast 7	3-4 43%	2-3-2 40%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WYO−2.7 →−3.0▼ 0.3#82

BOIS−9.9 →−2.4▲ 7.5#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WYO

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#76

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#46

#78

Defense

◀ WYO better

#110

+0.7 #26

Turnovers

◀ WYO better

−0.6 #113

60 plays #127

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

68 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: WYO offense

	WYO off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #86	30.9 #109	WYO
Yards / play	5.41 #88	6.57 #131	WYO
PPA / play	+0.11 #70	+0.18 #105	WYO
Success rate	43% #61	44% #96	WYO

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #59	25.6 #72	Even
Yards / play	6.28 #39	5.37 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.11 #82	BOIS
Success rate	47% #24	44% #100	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WYO scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	6.7 #50	7.9 #75	14.6 #68	5.3 #92	4.3 #118	9.6 #115
BOIS allowed	3.4 #31	11.0 #119	14.4 #89	5.1 #55	11.3 #131	16.4 #117

BOIS scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	4.3 #106	11.1 #22	15.4 #59	4.4 #105	9.9 #19	14.3 #51
WYO allowed	5.6 #80	6.1 #42	11.7 #56	1.9 #6	10.1 #123	12.0 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.