Oklahoma State @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oklahoma State

4-2 · Power #43

▲ winner

Final

West Virginia

4-2 · Power #39

final

Closing spread

WVU -3

✓ OKST W

Total

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 21–25 WVU

✗ WVU (60%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -3

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWVU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 57%, covered 45% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -3

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WVU as a 3-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: OKST won 48–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 48, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.7 against an average line of 3; 38.9 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	UAB vs FAU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–14	W	U49
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	COLO vs MINN 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	0–30	L	U49
Very close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	6–10	L	U47
Very close	ISU vs TTU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	10–14	L	U47.5
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	2-1
WVU WWWWL	4-2	67%	3-0	2-1

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; WVU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST UUO–O	2-3	40%	4-2
WVU OUUUO	2-3	40%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 88 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKSTlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	2-3 40%
WVUlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST−1.5 →+0.1▲ 1.6#62

WVU−6.5 →+2.3▲ 8.8#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

OKST

Longer bar = better

WVU

#85

Offense

Even

#76

#68

Defense

WVU better ▶

#52

+0.3 #43

Turnovers

◀ OKST better

−0.2 #86

72 plays #25

Pace

◀ OKST faster

70 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: WVU defense

	OKST off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #88	22.7 #49	WVU
Yards / play	5.40 #91	5.25 #48	WVU
PPA / play	+0.13 #68	+0.06 #59	Even
Success rate	40% #92	39% #50	WVU

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #71	24.7 #63	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #88	5.92 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #71	+0.11 #80	Even
Success rate	42% #75	38% #37	OKST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	6.8 #48	7.2 #93	14.0 #73	3.2 #124	8.8 #32	12.0 #89
WVU allowed	5.7 #84	5.7 #36	11.3 #54	3.5 #25	7.8 #98	11.3 #56

WVU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	5.2 #88	9.2 #52	14.3 #70	5.2 #88	9.0 #28	14.2 #57
OKST allowed	5.2 #71	9.8 #108	15.0 #95	4.8 #54	4.8 #41	9.7 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.