Texas Tech @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F1 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

3-4 · Power #45

final

Final

BYU

4-2 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -3

✓ BYU W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 29–25 BYU

✗ TTU (60%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTTU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Road favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 42% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 3-point road favorite at BYU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 27–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 49, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 3; 43.1 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Very close	FRES @ ASU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.75	29–0	W	U48
Very close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25
Very close	VT @ BC 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	3–17	L	U51
Very close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	32–39	L	O54
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	HOU @ NAVY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	38–20	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU WLWWL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-3
BYU LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: TTU away, as favorite; BYU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU UUO–O	2-3	40%	3-4
BYU OOOOO	5-0	100%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 45–53 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTUlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	2-3 40%
BYUlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	5-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+2.7 →+5.2▲ 2.5#35

BYU+3.3 →−3.1▼ 6.4#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TTU

Longer bar = better

BYU

#62

Offense

◀ TTU better

#109

#55

Defense

◀ TTU better

#82

−0.4 #104

Turnovers

BYU better ▶

+0.7 #27

73 plays #20

Pace

◀ TTU faster

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #44	26.0 #73	TTU
Yards / play	5.64 #74	5.73 #84	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #72	+0.13 #86	Even
Success rate	43% #56	43% #86	TTU

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	BYU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #78	25.1 #68	Even
Yards / play	4.95 #118	5.25 #47	TTU
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	+0.04 #46	TTU
Success rate	36% #128	40% #58	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	9.9 #11	7.7 #78	17.6 #39	6.4 #64	6.4 #72	12.9 #75
BYU allowed	7.5 #113	6.2 #45	13.7 #84	8.0 #108	4.3 #27	12.3 #74

BYU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	6.8 #50	8.8 #58	15.7 #58	6.2 #71	5.8 #89	12.0 #86
TTU allowed	6.6 #101	6.1 #42	12.7 #71	3.0 #16	7.3 #88	10.3 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.