Baylor @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

2-4 · Power #93

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

2-4 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

✓ BAY W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 24–28 CIN

✗ CIN (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCIN -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 2.5-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 32–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.1 against an average line of 3.3; 50.1 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	STAN vs ASU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	15–14	L	U52
Very close	MINN vs MD 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	34–16	W	U53
Very close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	16–40	L	O53
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	13–24	L	U54
Very close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Very close	BC vs GT 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	48–27	W	O57.25
Close	COLO vs MINN 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	0–30	L	U49
Close	MD vs IU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	38–35	L	O48
Close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25
Close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	22–35	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY PLLWL	1-4-1	20%	1-0	1-1-1
CIN WLLLL	2-4	33%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY UUUO–	1-3	25%	2-4
CIN OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 111 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-4-1 20%	1-3 25%
CINlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAY 1–1 CIN Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.4 →−3.8▼ 0.4#87

CIN+1.0 →+1.4▲ 0.4#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BAY

Longer bar = better

CIN

#107

Offense

CIN better ▶

#72

#105

Defense

CIN better ▶

#63

+0.3 #42

Turnovers

◀ BAY better

−0.5 #109

73 plays #18

Pace

Even

76 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	BAY off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #113	25.0 #66	CIN
Yards / play	5.51 #82	5.65 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #106	+0.15 #92	Even
Success rate	37% #125	36% #18	CIN

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #82	30.2 #101	Even
Yards / play	5.84 #61	6.27 #120	CIN
PPA / play	+0.13 #69	+0.19 #110	CIN
Success rate	42% #76	43% #87	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	3.8 #108	5.3 #118	9.2 #120	4.0 #111	8.5 #32	12.5 #84
CIN allowed	5.2 #67	6.3 #47	11.5 #59	6.2 #81	6.2 #64	12.3 #72

CIN scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	8.5 #28	7.3 #86	15.8 #58	6.0 #72	4.8 #107	10.8 #101
BAY allowed	8.2 #118	10.3 #112	18.5 #122	5.7 #70	6.0 #61	11.7 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.