Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F8 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

2-5 · Power #76

final

Final

Oklahoma State

5-2 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

OKST -7

✓ OKST W

Total

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 23–30 OKST

✓ OKST (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -7

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOKST -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 63%, covered 56% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOKST -7

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 7-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: OKST won 45–13; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 53, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 7; 47.2 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UVA vs BC 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	43–32	W	O54
Very close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Very close	SYR vs BC 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	21–6	W	U51.5
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	AUB vs MIZ 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	17–14	L	U51
Very close	TULN vs TEM 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.75	38–3	W	U57.5
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–17	W	U56
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Very close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	7–33	L	U49.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LLLLL	2-5	29%	1-1	1-1
OKST LLWWW	4-3	57%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; OKST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUOUO	5-2	71%	2-5
OKST UO–OO	3-3	50%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 111 earlier overs in games with totals 49–57, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CINlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	5-2 71%
OKSTlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+1.0 →+0.8▼ 0.2#59

OKST−1.5 →+2.8▲ 4.3#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CIN

Longer bar = better

OKST

#69

Offense

Even

#67

#66

Defense

Even

#73

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

OKST better ▶

+0.4 #37

76 plays #7

Pace

◀ CIN faster

72 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #73	26.0 #73	Even
Yards / play	5.88 #60	6.00 #103	CIN
PPA / play	+0.13 #65	+0.10 #74	Even
Success rate	41% #79	39% #41	OKST

When OKST has the ball

Even matchup

	OKST off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #63	26.0 #72	Even
Yards / play	5.64 #72	5.65 #76	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #53	+0.14 #90	OKST
Success rate	41% #78	37% #26	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	7.3 #41	8.3 #66	15.6 #55	5.1 #93	6.3 #80	11.4 #92
OKST allowed	4.4 #50	10.9 #119	15.3 #102	5.1 #58	5.6 #52	10.7 #50

OKST scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	7.3 #41	6.6 #99	13.9 #72	3.7 #116	11.6 #5	15.3 #37
CIN allowed	4.9 #65	7.9 #84	12.7 #67	6.6 #92	5.7 #56	12.3 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.