BYU @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

BYU

5-2 · Power #86

final

Final

Texas

6-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -20.5

✓ TEX W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 13–34 TEX

✓ TEX (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -20.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -20.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -20.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 20.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 35–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 18.4 against an average line of 20.2; 49 points a game (usually 56.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs IU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-20.5	29–7	W	U51
Very close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-22	49–27	P	O51
Very close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Very close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Very close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Very close	ND vs NAVY 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-21	34–6	W	U47.5
Very close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Close	CLEM vs WAKE 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-21	17–12	L	U53
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	PITT vs GT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-21.5	21–26	L	P47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WLWLW	3-4	43%	1-2	2-2
TEX LWWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-4

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU OOOOU	5-1	83%	5-2
TEX UUU–U	1-5	17%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 56% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYUlast 7	5-2 71%	3-4 43%	5-1 83%
TEXlast 7	6-1 86%	3-4 43%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+3.3 →−2.0▼ 5.3#76

TEX+8.6 →+17.7▲ 9.1#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BYU

Longer bar = better

TEX

#105

Offense

TEX better ▶

#28

#73

Defense

TEX better ▶

#25

+1.3 #5

Turnovers

◀ BYU better

+0.4 #32

61 plays #122

Pace

TEX faster ▶

71 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	BYU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #75	17.4 #17	TEX
Yards / play	4.94 #114	5.13 #37	TEX
PPA / play	+0.04 #103	+0.01 #30	TEX
Success rate	36% #129	35% #14	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #27	24.3 #63	TEX
Yards / play	6.64 #19	5.59 #75	TEX
PPA / play	+0.25 #25	+0.10 #73	TEX
Success rate	45% #39	42% #81	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	7.9 #32	9.0 #52	16.9 #45	5.7 #81	5.0 #106	10.7 #104
TEX allowed	2.9 #16	6.1 #41	9.0 #21	4.9 #46	3.6 #10	8.4 #21

TEX scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	7.3 #41	9.6 #42	16.9 #45	7.1 #48	10.4 #13	17.6 #17
BYU allowed	6.4 #97	6.3 #46	12.7 #70	6.9 #97	4.7 #36	11.6 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.