BYU @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

BYU

5-3 · Power #86

final

Final

West Virginia

5-3 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

WVU -12.5

✓ WVU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 18–30 WVU

✓ WVU (80%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -12.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWVU -12.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 36% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWVU -12.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WVU as a 12.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 37–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.9 against an average line of 11.8; 47.7 points a game (usually 55.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Very close	MSU vs IU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	31–39	L	O47.25
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	ECU vs ODU 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-13	39–21	W	O49.75
Very close	BSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.75	23–13	L	U48.5
Very close	UK vs SC 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	41–18	W	O46.5
Very close	TCU vs KSU 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.75	14–21	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU LWLWL	3-5	38%	1-3	2-3
WVU WWLLW	5-3	63%	3-1	2-2

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; WVU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-3
WVU UUOOO	4-3	57%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 56% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYUlast 8	5-3 63%	3-5 38%	5-2 71%
WVUlast 8	5-3 63%	5-3 63%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+3.3 →−1.9▼ 5.2#76

WVU−6.5 →+1.9▲ 8.4#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BYU

Longer bar = better

WVU

#114

Offense

WVU better ▶

#61

#72

Defense

Even

#81

+1.0 #13

Turnovers

◀ BYU better

+0.1 #62

62 plays #120

Pace

WVU faster ▶

71 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: WVU defense

	BYU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #87	26.5 #78	Even
Yards / play	4.87 #121	5.68 #80	WVU
PPA / play	+0.01 #115	+0.12 #84	WVU
Success rate	35% #131	43% #81	WVU

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #50	25.6 #69	Even
Yards / play	5.65 #70	5.62 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #69	+0.10 #70	Even
Success rate	43% #56	42% #74	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	6.9 #49	8.3 #67	15.1 #60	5.4 #90	4.4 #117	9.8 #113
WVU allowed	6.4 #94	5.5 #22	11.9 #56	4.4 #38	10.3 #130	14.6 #99

WVU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	5.1 #84	9.9 #36	15.0 #61	5.6 #82	10.1 #12	15.8 #33
BYU allowed	7.4 #112	6.4 #48	13.8 #81	6.0 #71	5.9 #58	11.9 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.