Utah State @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F11 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

3-5 · Power #100

▲ winner

Final

San Diego State

3-5 · Power #112

final

Closing spread

USU -2

✓ USU W

Total

Push · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 29–26 SDSU

✓ USU (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSU -2

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSU -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSU -2

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 2-point road favorite at SDSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 32–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 56 points landed on 56, as in 0 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 2.8; 53.4 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	COLO @ ASU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	27–24	P	U58.5
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Close	CMU @ BALL 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	37–17	W	U57
Close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Close	OHIO @ BALL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	32–18	W	U57.5
Close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Close	GAST @ USA 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	31–14	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU LLWWL	4-4	50%	1-3	1-1
SDSU WWLWL	4-4	50%	2-3	2-2

Venue/role: USU away, as favorite; SDSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU OOOOU	6-2	75%	3-5
SDSU UOOOU	4-3	57%	3-5

In 217 games with totals 52–60, 49% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USUlast 8	3-5 38%	4-4 50%	6-2 75%
SDSUlast 8	3-5 38%	4-4 50%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−5.3 →−3.4▲ 1.9#85

SDSU+1.0 →−11.0▼ 12.0#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

USU

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#44

Offense

◀ USU better

#98

#95

Defense

◀ USU better

#112

−0.1 #77

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+0.1 #55

71 plays #36

Pace

◀ USU faster

63 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #21	28.1 #90	USU
Yards / play	6.38 #35	6.25 #120	USU
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.19 #111	USU
Success rate	43% #59	47% #126	USU

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	19.6 #119	34.0 #123	Even
Yards / play	5.07 #112	5.42 #57	USU
PPA / play	+0.05 #101	+0.12 #78	USU
Success rate	43% #58	46% #121	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	2.1 #132	14.1 #4	16.3 #45	9.0 #16	10.0 #14	19.0 #8
SDSU allowed	2.4 #12	12.3 #130	14.6 #97	6.9 #97	6.6 #78	13.5 #86

SDSU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	4.6 #97	6.3 #100	10.9 #106	1.5 #133	7.3 #54	8.8 #121
USU allowed	13.1 #133	7.3 #67	20.4 #130	5.3 #57	8.4 #100	13.6 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.