Utah State @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F12 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

3-4 · Power #100

final

Final

San José State

2-5 · Power #60

▲ winner

Closing spread

SJSU -4

✓ SJSU W

Total

▼ Under · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 28–31 SJSU

✓ SJSU (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSJSU -4

Total65

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSJSU -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close65

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 44% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSJSU -4

Total65

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 4-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 42–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points stayed under 65, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 3.7; 64.1 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ODU vs GASO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & total	-1.5	23–28	L	U66
Very close	UL vs GASO 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	36–17	W	U63
Very close	ARIZ vs ASU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	38–35	L	O66.5
Very close	GAST vs GASO 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	41–33	W	O66.5
Very close	USU vs HAW 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	51–31	W	O66
Very close	EMU vs NIU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	10–39	L	U64.25
Very close	UVA vs LOU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.75	31–17	W	U63.5
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	ARST vs TROY 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	10–38	L	U69.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU LLLWW	4-3	57%	1-2	3-2
SJSU WWLPW	4-2-1	67%	1-2	2-0

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; SJSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU OOOOO	6-1	86%	3-4
SJSU OUO–O	4-1	80%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 42% of games with totals 61–69 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USUlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	6-1 86%
SJSUlast 7	2-5 29%	4-2-1 67%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−5.3 →−2.5▲ 2.8#80

SJSU−9.4 →−4.0▲ 5.4#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

USU

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#37

Offense

◀ USU better

#52

#93

Defense

◀ USU better

#118

0.0 #65

Turnovers

SJSU better ▶

+0.9 #18

72 plays #28

Pace

◀ USU faster

62 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #16	32.3 #116	USU
Yards / play	6.64 #24	6.10 #106	USU
PPA / play	+0.16 #54	+0.27 #128	USU
Success rate	43% #54	46% #122	USU

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #48	32.9 #117	SJSU
Yards / play	6.34 #38	5.44 #60	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #55	+0.11 #77	SJSU
Success rate	42% #67	45% #117	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USU scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	2.4 #128	14.1 #5	16.6 #51	10.3 #11	10.4 #13	20.7 #5
SJSU allowed	2.9 #21	11.4 #122	14.3 #89	8.0 #108	10.0 #120	18.0 #126

SJSU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	5.3 #83	12.7 #11	18.0 #33	8.4 #27	5.0 #105	13.4 #69
USU allowed	13.0 #133	8.3 #87	21.3 #131	4.0 #35	7.6 #96	11.6 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.