Hawai'i @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

2-5 · Power #123

final

Final

New Mexico

2-4 · Power #117

▲ winner

Closing spread

HAW -1.5

✓ UNM W

Total

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 28–29 UNM

✓ UNM (51%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHAW -1.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHAW -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHAW -1.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HAW as a 1.5-point road favorite at UNM, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 42–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 60, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 2.5; 51.9 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RICE @ USM 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	30–6	W	U58.75
Very close	BALL @ NIU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	29–30	L	U59.5
Very close	CSU @ USU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–44	L	O62
Very close	NIU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.75	33–27	W	O59
Close	GAST @ USA 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–14	W	U58.5
Close	LT @ UTSA 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	26–27	L	U53.5
Close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Close	M-OH @ EMU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	12–13	L	U58.5
Close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW PLLLL	1-5-1	17%	1-2	0-1-1
UNM WLWWL	3-3	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: HAW away, as favorite; UNM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW UUUOO	4-3	57%	2-5
UNM OUOOO	5-1	83%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 52 earlier overs in games with totals 56–64, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAWlast 7	2-5 29%	1-5-1 17%	4-3 57%
UNMlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−6.5 →−13.6▼ 7.1#123

UNM−11.8 →−13.1▼ 1.3#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

HAW

Longer bar = better

UNM

#100

Offense

UNM better ▶

#44

#100

Defense

◀ HAW better

#130

−1.3 #133

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #123

66 plays #83

Pace

◀ HAW faster

63 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: HAW offense

	HAW off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #95	34.5 #121	HAW
Yards / play	5.41 #90	7.19 #133	HAW
PPA / play	+0.03 #107	+0.33 #133	HAW
Success rate	39% #106	50% #132	HAW

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #72	35.6 #124	UNM
Yards / play	6.26 #45	6.05 #105	UNM
PPA / play	+0.26 #22	+0.16 #96	UNM
Success rate	45% #38	42% #76	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.4 #127	6.7 #104	9.1 #120	4.9 #97	9.9 #19	14.7 #50
UNM allowed	3.8 #41	13.2 #131	17.0 #110	9.0 #123	8.0 #100	17.0 #118

UNM scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	5.5 #76	11.0 #30	16.5 #52	4.5 #104	5.8 #89	10.3 #107
HAW allowed	10.9 #129	10.1 #112	21.0 #130	5.7 #70	8.9 #111	14.6 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.