New Mexico @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F3 mphgusts 9DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Mexico

3-4 · Power #117

final

Final

Nevada

1-6 · Power #132

▲ winner

Closing spread

Pick’em

✓ NEV W

Total

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 26–26 NEV

✗ UNM (51%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePick’em

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM LWWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
NEV WWWLW	4-3	57%	1-2	—

Venue/role: UNM away; NEV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM UOOOO	6-1	86%	3-4
NEV UUUOU	1-5	17%	1-6

Went over in Q4. Of 116 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNMlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	6-1 86%
NEVlast 7	1-6 14%	4-3 57%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.8 →−11.0▲ 0.8#115

NEV−18.4 →−15.2▲ 3.2#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UNM

Longer bar = better

NEV

#31

Offense

◀ UNM better

#121

#128

Defense

Even

#129

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

◀ UNM better

−0.4 #104

63 plays #110

Pace

NEV faster ▶

66 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #58	33.9 #122	UNM
Yards / play	6.32 #37	7.62 #135	UNM
PPA / play	+0.31 #11	+0.25 #129	UNM
Success rate	48% #18	48% #129	UNM

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #132	32.6 #114	Even
Yards / play	4.75 #123	7.01 #132	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #114	+0.28 #131	Even
Success rate	38% #116	50% #133	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	6.7 #52	11.4 #19	18.1 #28	4.9 #100	6.0 #86	10.9 #99
NEV allowed	9.0 #123	5.9 #28	14.9 #96	9.7 #130	9.3 #115	19.0 #131

NEV scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	4.3 #106	3.3 #132	7.6 #130	2.0 #132	6.1 #81	8.1 #123
UNM allowed	4.3 #46	12.3 #131	16.6 #111	7.7 #110	7.9 #93	15.6 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.