Air Force @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff30°F4 mphgusts 10Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Air Force

7-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Final

Colorado State

3-4 · Power #109

final

Closing spread

AFA -14.5

✓ AFA W

Total

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 33–18 CSU

✓ AFA (85%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -14.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAFA -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAFA -14.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 14.5-point road favorite at CSU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 30–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 47, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 13.8; 59.3 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Very close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	45–28	W	O50
Very close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Very close	UAB @ LT 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-12.75	34–37	L	O47
Very close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Very close	MRSH @ LT 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12	35–17	W	O48
Close	CCU @ TROY 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.75	42–38	L	O52.5
Close	CIN @ TEM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-17	23–3	W	U49
Close	LIB @ CONN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	33–36	L	O45
Close	IOWA @ ILL 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	35–21	P	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA WWWLP	3-3-1	50%	1-0-1	3-3-1
CSU WLLWW	4-3	57%	1-2	4-1

Venue/role: AFA away, as favorite; CSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA OOOOU	4-3	57%	7-0
CSU OUOOU	5-2	71%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 56% of games with totals 43–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFAlast 7	7-0 100%	3-3-1 50%	4-3 57%
CSUlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA+5.5 →+7.3▲ 1.8#28

CSU−7.1 →−8.3▼ 1.2#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

AFA

Longer bar = better

CSU

#21

Offense

◀ AFA better

#73

#15

Defense

◀ AFA better

#100

+0.4 #31

Turnovers

◀ AFA better

−0.3 #94

63 plays #111

Pace

CSU faster ▶

71 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #30	33.6 #120	AFA
Yards / play	6.30 #38	6.02 #105	AFA
PPA / play	+0.33 #8	+0.10 #75	AFA
Success rate	52% #9	44% #98	AFA

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	CSU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #56	13.4 #4	AFA
Yards / play	5.84 #65	4.05 #3	AFA
PPA / play	+0.08 #88	−0.01 #23	AFA
Success rate	41% #81	37% #31	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	6.6 #52	11.3 #19	17.9 #29	7.4 #43	8.9 #27	16.3 #28
CSU allowed	6.3 #92	8.3 #91	14.6 #91	6.0 #77	10.9 #129	16.9 #121

CSU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	8.3 #24	3.9 #128	12.1 #91	3.3 #122	13.4 #1	16.7 #25
AFA allowed	2.9 #17	5.4 #26	8.3 #14	1.4 #4	3.7 #11	5.1 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.