Tennessee @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

5-2 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

5-2 · Power #44

final

Closing spread

TENN -4

✓ TENN W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 29–24 UK

✓ TENN (65%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -4

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTENN -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 61%, covered 47% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -4

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 4-point road favorite at UK, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 33–27; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 4.5; 54.4 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB @ MINN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–30	L	O48.5
Very close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Very close	MICH @ MSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	33–37	L	O50.5
Very close	PSU @ MSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	27–30	L	O51.5
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	MICH @ IU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	21–38	L	O55
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	ISU @ KSU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	33–20	W	O51
Close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	32–39	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN LWWWL	4-3	57%	0-2	4-2
UK WWWLL	4-3	57%	3-2	0-1

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; UK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN UPOUO	3-3-1	50%	5-2
UK UOO–O	4-2	67%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 117 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENNlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	3-3-1 50%
UKlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+9.7 →+13.6▲ 3.9#14

UK+6.1 →+1.7▼ 4.4#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TENN

Longer bar = better

#51

Offense

Even

#53

#14

Defense

◀ TENN better

#52

+0.3 #46

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #47

72 plays #27

Pace

◀ TENN faster

55 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #44	23.6 #57	Even
Yards / play	6.11 #49	5.19 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	+0.04 #41	UK
Success rate	44% #47	41% #64	Even

When UK has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	UK off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #45	19.4 #29	Even
Yards / play	6.43 #30	4.58 #14	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #48	−0.07 #9	TENN
Success rate	41% #87	33% #5	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	9.3 #14	8.3 #65	17.6 #32	5.9 #77	8.1 #32	14.0 #52
UK allowed	4.0 #40	7.7 #81	11.7 #56	5.1 #57	6.7 #78	11.9 #61

UK scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	8.7 #20	7.3 #84	16.0 #51	8.9 #21	6.4 #74	15.3 #39
TENN allowed	3.7 #33	5.1 #25	8.9 #23	6.9 #97	3.7 #11	10.6 #47

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.