Mississippi State @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

4-3 · Power #64

final

Final

Auburn

3-4 · Power #40

▲ winner

Closing spread

AUB -6.5

✓ AUB W

Total

Push · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 19–26 AUB

✓ AUB (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAUB -6.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAUB -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 57% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAUB -6.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 6.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 27–13; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 40 points landed on 40, as in 0 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 5.8; 49 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Very close	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5
Very close	CIN vs ISU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5	10–30	L	U42.5
Very close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	32–31	L	O44.5
Very close	SC vs TROY 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	23–14	W	U43.5
Very close	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	27–22	W	O37
Very close	IOWA vs MSU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	49–7	W	O46
Very close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	25–10	W	U43
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	34–17	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST LLLLW	2-5	29%	1-1	1-3
AUB LLWLL	2-5	29%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST OOOOU	4-3	57%	4-3
AUB UUOOU	3-4	43%	3-4

In 51 games with totals 36–44, 55% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 39% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSSTlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	4-3 57%
AUBlast 7	3-4 43%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+2.3 →+1.7▼ 0.6#53

AUB+11.4 →+4.9▼ 6.5#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MSST

Longer bar = better

AUB

#83

Offense

Even

#85

#73

Defense

Even

#70

+0.3 #48

Turnovers

AUB better ▶

+0.4 #33

60 plays #126

Pace

AUB faster ▶

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #79	23.9 #58	AUB
Yards / play	5.85 #62	5.78 #86	MSST
PPA / play	+0.09 #81	+0.09 #65	Even
Success rate	39% #109	42% #72	AUB

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #80	25.7 #73	Even
Yards / play	5.28 #95	5.47 #65	MSST
PPA / play	+0.07 #96	+0.08 #60	MSST
Success rate	42% #67	44% #94	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	3.9 #108	9.3 #47	13.1 #82	6.4 #63	6.3 #79	12.7 #75
AUB allowed	6.7 #100	2.9 #5	9.6 #28	7.9 #114	6.4 #73	14.3 #96

AUB scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	3.9 #108	8.9 #55	12.7 #84	6.4 #63	7.6 #47	14.0 #55
MSST allowed	4.9 #63	9.3 #101	14.1 #86	5.9 #69	5.7 #53	11.6 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.