Duke @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Duke

5-2 · Power #37

final

Final

Louisville

6-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -4.5

✓ LOU W

Total

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 24–27 LOU

✓ LOU (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -4.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLOU -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 47% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -4.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 4.5-point home favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 23–0; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 47, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.7 against an average line of 4.2; 41.1 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M vs AUB 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	20–3	W	U49.5
Very close	ORST vs UTAH 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	21–7	W	U44.5
Very close	WVU vs KSU 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5	37–10	W	O46
Very close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	24–14	W	U47
Very close	SYR vs NCST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–9	W	U42.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Very close	ISU vs WVU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-6	42–6	W	P48
Very close	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	42–24	W	O45
Close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WWLWL	4-3	57%	1-1	1-2
LOU LWLWL	3-4	43%	3-0	2-4

Venue/role: DUKE away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OOUUO	3-2-1	60%	5-2
LOU UOU–O	3-2	60%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 56% of games with totals 43–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKElast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	3-2-1 60%
LOUlast 7	6-1 86%	3-4 43%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.1 →+10.2▲ 6.1#22

LOU+2.1 →+8.4▲ 6.3#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

DUKE

Longer bar = better

LOU

#43

Offense

LOU better ▶

#24

#25

Defense

Even

#29

+0.4 #40

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #30

60 plays #128

Pace

LOU faster ▶

69 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #61	20.6 #39	LOU
Yards / play	6.24 #41	5.08 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #37	−0.02 #17	Even
Success rate	46% #33	37% #28	Even

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #29	13.9 #5	DUKE
Yards / play	6.74 #18	4.69 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #31	−0.04 #16	Even
Success rate	49% #17	41% #60	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.9 #73	9.6 #42	15.4 #59	9.0 #16	5.1 #104	14.1 #54
LOU allowed	1.0 #1	9.4 #103	10.4 #39	6.3 #83	3.9 #15	10.1 #43

LOU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.9 #47	12.0 #15	18.9 #19	8.3 #27	7.0 #58	15.3 #38
DUKE allowed	3.4 #29	3.9 #11	7.3 #10	0.4 #3	6.1 #64	6.6 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.