Virginia Tech @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

4-4 · Power #41

final

Final

Louisville

7-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -9

✓ LOU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 20–30 LOU

✓ LOU (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -9

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLOU -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 7–11 since 2023: won 72%, covered 48% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -9

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 9-point home favorite against VT, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 34–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 9.7; 52.5 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Very close	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	24–21	L	U47
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	22–26	L	O45.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	WISC vs NEB 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10	35–28	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT LWWWW	5-3	63%	1-2	2-2
LOU WLWLW	4-4	50%	4-0	3-4

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT UO–UO	4-3	57%	4-4
LOU OU–OU	3-3	50%	7-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 56% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VTlast 8	4-4 50%	5-3 63%	4-3 57%
LOUlast 8	7-1 88%	4-4 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+3.6 →+2.1▼ 1.5#51

LOU+2.1 →+10.8▲ 8.7#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

LOU

#83

Offense

LOU better ▶

#22

#40

Defense

LOU better ▶

#18

+0.1 #63

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.5 #30

69 plays #47

Pace

Even

68 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	VT off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #77	18.0 #19	LOU
Yards / play	5.49 #82	4.98 #25	LOU
PPA / play	+0.08 #92	−0.05 #9	LOU
Success rate	41% #81	36% #19	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #35	22.9 #51	Even
Yards / play	6.59 #20	5.17 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #21	+0.05 #49	LOU
Success rate	50% #12	36% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

VT scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	3.6 #115	11.9 #15	15.5 #57	6.3 #65	4.4 #119	10.6 #101
LOU allowed	0.9 #1	8.3 #86	9.1 #23	5.5 #64	3.4 #10	8.9 #21

LOU scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.8 #34	10.9 #24	18.6 #22	8.0 #30	6.1 #87	14.1 #50
VT allowed	5.4 #75	8.0 #85	13.4 #75	5.6 #70	3.9 #13	9.5 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.