Tulane @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Tulane

7-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Final

East Carolina

1-7 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

TULN -17

✓ ECU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 30–14 ECU

✓ TULN (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -17

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTULN -17

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -17

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 17-point road favorite at ECU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 13–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.8 against an average line of 16.6; 43.2 points a game (usually 55.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-17.25	21–16	L	U45.5
Very close	UAB @ USM 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	34–0	W	U43.25
Very close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Very close	BOIS @ UTEP 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-16.25	10–27	L	U44.5
Very close	NCST @ SYR 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	36–29	L	O50.5
Very close	CIN @ TEM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-17	23–3	W	U49
Very close	USU @ UNM 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-17	35–10	W	U48
Very close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Close	TROY @ ARST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	48–19	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN LLWLL	3-5	38%	2-1	3-4
ECU WLLLW	3-5	38%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; ECU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UUUUO	1-6	14%	7-1
ECU UUUUO	3-5	38%	1-7

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULNlast 8	7-1 88%	3-5 38%	1-6 14%
ECUlast 8	1-7 13%	3-5 38%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+6.3 →+3.8▼ 2.5#43

ECU−10.0 →−9.2▲ 0.8#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TULN

Longer bar = better

ECU

#50

Offense

◀ TULN better

#132

#52

Defense

Even

#57

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #57

65 plays #85

Pace

ECU faster ▶

69 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Even matchup

	TULN off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #52	26.3 #74	TULN
Yards / play	6.22 #45	5.54 #66	TULN
PPA / play	+0.13 #67	+0.12 #79	Even
Success rate	46% #35	34% #9	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	ECU off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #124	20.5 #33	TULN
Yards / play	4.20 #134	5.21 #41	TULN
PPA / play	−0.11 #136	+0.07 #52	TULN
Success rate	33% #134	43% #82	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	9.0 #14	9.4 #45	18.4 #23	6.9 #53	5.4 #102	12.3 #82
ECU allowed	6.4 #90	7.0 #62	13.4 #75	5.5 #64	7.4 #87	12.9 #77

ECU scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	5.0 #89	6.6 #98	11.6 #99	2.1 #130	4.9 #112	7.0 #129
TULN allowed	2.1 #5	6.4 #46	8.5 #15	7.4 #108	4.6 #29	12.0 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.