Tulsa @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Tulane · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F9 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

3-6 · Power #118

final

Final

Tulane

8-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -24.5

✓ TLSA W

Total

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 14–37 TULN

✓ TULN (95%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -24.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTULN -24.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -24.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 24.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 24–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 53, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 23.6; 53.6 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24	34–7	W	U51
Very close	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Very close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Very close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Very close	BYU vs USF 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-23.5	35–27	L	O54.5
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24	42–7	W	U54
Very close	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5
Very close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Very close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-22	27–38	L	O51.5
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-22	44–10	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA WWLLL	3-5-1	38%	2-1-1	2-2-1
TULN LWLLL	3-6	33%	1-4	3-5

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA O–UOO	4-4	50%	3-6
TULN UUUOU	1-7	13%	8-1

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 55% of games with totals 49–57 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSAlast 9	3-6 33%	3-5-1 38%	4-4 50%
TULNlast 9	8-1 89%	3-6 33%	1-7 13%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TLSA 13–8 TULN TLSA leads · 21 games since 1968 · TULN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA+3.9 →−12.1▼ 16.0#120

TULN+6.3 →+3.7▼ 2.6#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TLSA

Longer bar = better

TULN

#94

Offense

TULN better ▶

#55

#119

Defense

TULN better ▶

#47

−0.9 #129

Turnovers

TULN better ▶

+0.2 #53

71 plays #30

Pace

◀ TLSA faster

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	TLSA off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #103	19.3 #25	TULN
Yards / play	5.11 #108	5.17 #39	TULN
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	+0.06 #48	TULN
Success rate	42% #73	42% #74	Even

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #63	35.6 #129	TULN
Yards / play	6.12 #46	6.48 #131	TULN
PPA / play	+0.13 #68	+0.22 #125	TULN
Success rate	45% #43	43% #91	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	4.0 #110	8.4 #62	12.4 #85	2.9 #126	7.1 #58	10.0 #111
TULN allowed	3.0 #16	5.7 #27	8.7 #19	6.6 #90	4.1 #15	10.7 #44

TULN scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.0 #27	9.4 #43	17.4 #31	6.1 #70	5.1 #104	11.2 #98
TLSA allowed	12.0 #133	7.7 #82	19.7 #130	10.0 #131	5.1 #37	15.1 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.